| Risk prevention and control has become the focus of attention of all countries under the background of frequent debt crises in Europe and the United States in recent years.China also has implemented a series of stimulus measures in response to the international financial crisis Since 2009.While promoting economic growth,it not only contains huge government debt risk and leads to low debt efficiency,but also exacerbates the financing difficulties of enterprises,and the huge government debt risk also spreads to micro enterprises,threatening China’s economic security.Faced with the current downtown pressure on the economy,the high risk of local debt,the difficulty of financing and the impact of global COVID-19,and so on,how to deal with the relationship between government debt and corporate debt and control the scale of local government debt and implicit debt,and improve the efficiency of debt utilization.That is,while improving the efficiency of infrastructure construction,alleviating the financing difficulties of enterprises,preventing the spread of government debt risk to micro subjects,stimulating the respective vitality of the government and enterprise subjects,and promoting steady economic growth have become the difficulties of local government debt governance.China began to implement the reform of local debt after the revision of the new budget law in 2014,which tried to harden debt constraints and change the operation process of local debt.So it does affect the local government debt,the efficiency of local infrastructure Corporate debt financing and debt default have had a profound impact.Generally speaking,this paper mainly focuses on the new round of local debt reform.After reviewing the existing literature and the relevant characteristics and facts of local debt,based on the unity of the conceptual caliber of local debt before and after the local debt reform,the acquisition of relevant debt data of local government and the asynchronous implementation of local debt reform,after clarifying the conceptual relationship of local debt before and after various reforms,using the method of making ends meet in the use of local debt,this paper calculates the data of government debt of prefecture level cities,and makes use of the practical differences in the implementation of prefecture level and city reform and the differences in the impact of local debt reform on regions with different debt dependence as the policy impact to carry out a comprehensive evaluation on the impact of specific reform measures on government and enterprise debt.The research design and main conclusions of the main part of this paper are as follows:First,the impact of local debt reform on the debt risk of prefectural and municipal governments.Based on the local government debt data of all provinces and autonomous regions published in 2014,we measures the local government debt of Chines cities from 2007 to 2017 by using the break even method.Taking advantage of the asynchronous implementation of prefecture level and municipal reform,this paper uses the multi-stage double difference method(did)to investigate the impact of local debt reform on the scale and risk of prefecture level and municipal government debt.This paper finds that the local debt reform has achieved initial results,which plays a significant role in controlling the growth trend of government debt and curbing debt risk.Moreover,after a series of tests including common trend test,alternative variable estimation,controlling the common change trend in the province,augmented did model estimation and placebo test,the regression results are still robust.Finally,we finds the reform has effectively restrained the growth of the implicit debt,but not had a significant impact on the platform stock debt in the short term,indicating that the implicit stock debt measured by the platform can not be effectively resolved in the short term.Second,the impact of local debt reform on the efficiency of local infrastructure.By constructing a static game model of local infrastructure investment,this paper studies the effect of local debt reform on local infrastructure efficiency.At the same time,using the impact of local debt reform and the strength double difference method,this paper investigates the impact of reform on local infrastructure efficiency.The model derivation and empirical results show that the reform can improve the infrastructure efficiency of local by increasing pressure in the short term.The greater the financial pressure caused by local debt reform,the more effective the PPP model can be and improve the efficiency of local infrastructure.Moreover,compared with non-national demonstration PPP projects,national demonstration PPP projects can better play the role of private capital in promoting infrastructure efficiency.Third,the impact of local debt reform on enterprise debt financing.Using the measured local government debt data and combined with the data of listed non-financial enterprises,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the policy impact of local government debt management reform on enterprise debt financing.The analysis found that the reform reduced the capital crowding of government debt on enterprise financing and promoted the improvement of enterprise debt financing level.Moreover,after using alternative variables,virtual reform variables and alternative estimation methods for regression,the above results remain robust.In the mechanism analysis,we find that the reform mainly promotes the improvement of enterprise financing level by weakening the role of financing platform in government debt,that is,significantly inhibiting new financing platform loans,while the role of new loans to other government entities is not obvious.Fourth,the impact of local debt reform on corporate debt default.With the help of the default and arrears data of private enterprises engaged in infrastructure and public welfare projects,this paper broadens the research perspective of the risk expansion of implicit debt of local and municipal governments,uses the financial impact caused by local debt reform to estimate the intensity of double difference,and investigates the impact of local debt reform on the default and arrears of private infrastructure enterprises,It reflects the actual effect of the reform on the rapid expansion of government implicit debt risk.Through empirical analysis,we find that the local debt reform has effectively reduced the default arrears of private infrastructure enterprises,reflecting the inhibitory effect of the reform on the rapid expansion of local implicit debt risk to micro subjects.Through further mechanism analysis,we find that on the one hand,the local debt reform has standardized the financing mode of local governments to a certain extent by standardizing the local financing demand and allowing local governments to raise construction funds through issuing(re lending)government bonds and PPP projects,reducing the dependence on private enterprises to advance funds and start construction,so as to reduce the government’s arrears to private enterprises;On the other hand,the local debt reform also restricts the supply of local government loans and restricts local governments from obtaining bank loans by issuing letters of guarantee to private enterprises,so as to reduce the occurrence of "private borrowing and official use" and reduce the debt risk borne by private enterprises.In addition,the financial pressure caused by the"replacing business tax with value-added tax" reform,local debt reform and the "deproductivity" and "deleverage" policies in the supply side reform are excluded.This paper focuses on the policy effect of the new round of local debt reform,and expands the research ideas,research methods and research objects of the impact of the new round of local debt reform on government and enterprise debt.From the perspective of research methods,starting from the practical differences in the implementation of regional reform and the impact differences caused by the reform on regions with different debt dependence,this paper regards the local debt reform as a policy impact,so as to identify the role of the policy in controlling local government debt,implicit debt and enterprise debt,which helps to solve the endogenous problem that the existing literature can not effectively deal with.From the perspective of research ideas and objects,this paper subdivides the specific measures of reform and makes an overall investigation on its impact on government and enterprises,especially indirectly shows the risk expansion of hidden local debt from the perspective of debt default of private enterprises closely related to local governments,and widens the research ideas of hidden debt and private enterprises.In addition,the detailed research on the financing platform,PPP project and the financial pressure and regulatory pressure caused by the hardening of budget constraints under the local debt reform also helps to provide effective policy suggestions for further deepening the local debt reform in China. |
