Research On The Promotion Effect Of Rural Labor Migration On Industrial Structure Change

The migration of rural labor helps to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure and improve the total labor productivity.The structural bonus generated by the reallocation of labor is a major driving force for China's economic growth in future.Under the background of new normal and supply side structural reform,this study has important theoretical and practical significance.From the current research,scholars usually defined the change of industrial structure by the change of employment structure.This view is helpful to simplify the analysis,but it is easy to ignore the transmission effect from the migration of rural labor to the change of industrial structure.Based on this reason,this paper considers the migration of rural labor as one of the reasons for the change of industrial structure and analyzing the mechanism of the effect of rural labor force on industrial structure change caused by exogenous factors.Firstly,this paper reviews the related theories of labor migration and industrial structure change,then,summarizing the process of rural labor migration and the change of industrial structure in China.On this basis,the micro mechanism of promoting effect is analyzed from two aspects:the change of inputting factors structure and demand structure caused by the migration of rural labor force.Secondly,we constructed a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model which including non-homothetic preference,different efficiency of industries and labor market distortions.Besides,we introduced the index of industrial optimization and upgrading in the model.After setting up the theoretical model,we calibrated and estimated the parameters.Through the dynamic analysis and comparative static analysis,we can draw the conclusion that difference of labor efficiency which caused by exogenous facts and the decrease of labor market distortion lead to the migration of rural labor and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.Thirdly,based on the theoretical model and provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015,the panel econometric model is applied to analyze the positive influence of rural labor migration on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.We also take used of the method of 2SLS to test the robustness of the model.Finally,based on the mechanism analysis,numerical simulation and empirical test,we summarized the relevant conclusions about the role of labor migration in promoting industrial structure change.