| New-type Urbanization is a key area in deepening the economic reform in China,and an important engine to promote the sustainable development of China's economy in the supply-side reform period.Citizenization of peasant migrants is proposed under the background of this people-oriented urbanization,whose core concept is the comprehensive transfer of the rural labor force from rural area to urban area.This concept emphasis the all-round transition from peasant to citizen,the equal distribution system of rights which is from the demolition of household registration barriers to the gradual divestment tied to the household registration system,and the construction of welfare sharing system which is no difference in both social security and economic development.However,as a developing country with large population,there are still obvious urban and rural labor market segments in the labor market,and the institutional threshold of the primary labor market and the secondary labor market within the urban labor force,which makes that citizenization of peasant migrants not only needs to get rid of the "migrant workers identity" of the "explicit household registration wall”,but also to break the "citizen's performance" of the "hidden household registration's welfare wall".At present,several concrete work and researches about the citizenization of peasant migrants at the level of household and the basic public service equalization are carried out,but still need to further optimize and quantify the policy simulation analysis.Therefore,the paper attempts to construct the dynamic CGE model of migrant workers from the perspective of the main characteristics of the labor market in China,and conducts quantitative research from the two aspects of policy reform of rural migrants' citizenization and policy of basic public services equalization for peasant migrants.This paper is based on the logical framework of "literature review-analysis of the status quo-theoretical modeling-policy simulation-policy recommendations”.First of all,the paper reviews literature systematically about three kinds of studies:studies on the connotation of the peasant workers,the correlation research between the characteristics of the labor market and the citizenization of peasant workers,and quantitative research about the citizenization of peasant workers from the perspectives of both the local equilibrium and the general equilibrium.Then,on the basis of combing the characteristics of the age,region,employment and transfer preference of current migrant workers in China,the quantitative breadth and quality depth of peasant workers' citizenization are measured,characterizing the basic development trend and the future possible evolution trend of peasant workers'citizenization.Along the gradual development of the reform from the degree of citizenization to the depth of citizenization,according to the hierarchical framework of the opinions of the State Council on household registration reform,combined with the core idea of the progressive citizenization step by step,peasant workers'citizenization follows the basic principles of "classification,by region,given responsibility",and sets bearing capacity targets according to the urbanization target,macroeconomic characteristics,and urban carrying capacity.This paper constructs the roadmap for the implementation of peasant workers' citizenization in China by setting up the overall framework of promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer,from the four levels of household registration,demographic statistics,transfer of population settled system and agricultural transfer rights and interests protection system.Combined with the forecast data and authoritative reports,the paper summarizes the main characteristics of China's labor market in the process of peasant workers' citizenization.Besides,several core ideas and quantitative assessment basis are proposed to determinate model's historical simulation baseline,update settings of predictive simulation baseline,modeling of dynamic CGE model of peasant workers'citizenization,and scene setting of policy simulation,which are obtained by studying the impact of the labor supply structure on citizenization decision-making,the impact of occupational dependence caused by the labor market segmentation changes on citizenization decision-making,the impact of public service equalization policy on citizenization decision-making,and the labor force transfer matrix caused by human capital.The dynamic CGE model of rural migrant workers' citizenization is based on the CHINAGEM model,which introduces the endogenous division of the labor market,the effective labor force equation,the price stickiness equation and the wage stickiness equation,and sets up four modules:the labor supply module which reflects the "occupational dependence”,the labor vacancy-fill in dynamic link mechanism which reflects the endogenous division of the labor market,the influential module which reflects the impact of effective labor force in rural area on agricultural production,and the price module which reflects the wage stickiness and price stickiness.By doing this,labor market module can be more in line with China's labor market characteristics,and the model can provide a more feasible simulation analysis tool for quantitative assessing the effect of polices which target at peasant workers'citizenization.From the aspect of dynamic simulation baseline,this paper re-sets the historical simulation value from 2006 to 2015,and describes historical simulation baselines and predictive simulation baselines of both industry and labor supply-demand in detail.Besides,industrial sectors are divided according to the output,consumption,investment,import,export and employment,re-setting the model's industrial division and industrial mapping relationship.Among them,the baseline design of the forecasting simulation is a comprehensive consideration of the forecast data of the authoritative institutions and scholars,the inertial path of China's economic development,and the aging of the population and the structural changes of the labor force from 2006 to 2015.By using this model,this paper systematically evaluates the economic effect of the policy of peasant workers' citizenization on household registration and the policy of equalization of basic public services of peasant workers' citizenization.In the household-registration-side policy simulation of rural migrant workers' citizenization,the policy effect under the current labor market segmentation mechanism and the assumption of urban and rural labor market integration are considered.The main conclusions of the current labor market segmentation mechanism are as follows:(1)Citizenization of rural migrant workers can expand the overall size of employment and optimize the employment structure.From the view of total amount,citizenization of rural migrant workers can promote the employment of the whole society,especially to the employment of the industries which mainly absorb migrant works and provide services for migrant workers.From the view of employment structure,household registration reform,relative wage changes and preferential policies make the urban employment grow,rural employment decline,and the growth of urban labor force higher than the absolute decline of rural labor force,which indicates that citizenization of peasant workers can solve the hidden unemployment of China's cities to a certain extent,providing more stable and higher human capital labor force for urban industrial sectors.Of course,the fact that there is a slight decline in agricultural output caused by citizenization of peasant workers can't be ignored.In the process of citizenization of peasant workers,the integration of the transfer of rural land and industrialization of rural production should be considered,in order to encourage family farm production,to stabilize agricultural production and improve agricultural production efficiency while promoting the process of citizenization of peasant workers.(2)Citizenization of rural migrant workers has improved the actual wage level of the rural labor force and reduced the actual wage level of the urban labor force.Due to the fact that the current wage level of urban and rural wage level is relatively large,although the wage level of urban labor is still higher than that of rural labor,the growth level of rural labor's wage is higher than the absolute decline level of urban labor's wage,leading to the reduction of urban-rural wage gap.Therefore,this aspect has improved the distribution of urban and rural areas in China.On the other hand,wage changes will lead to the accumulation of capital stock in different industries,to promote China's manufacturing and service industry output growth,especially real estate industry which provides services for migrant workers,health and social work services,education,leasing and business services,finance and insurance.(3)Citizenization of rural migrant workers has promoted the growth of domestic consumption and investment,and has steadily improved the stimulating effect of investment and consumption on economic growth.According to the results of decomposition,the fact that China's household consumption and consumption structure incline to the domestic product promotes the expansion of domestic demand.On the basis of the overall decline in the cost of labor factors,the fact that China,s household consumption and consumption structure incline to the domestic product further expand the scale of China's exports,leading to the long-term sustainable economic development.Compared with the current labor market segmentation mechanism,the labor market integration mechanism will enhance the positive impact of the urbanization policy of Citizenization of rural migrant workers on the household registration system,and the actual GDP and the actual GNP will increase obviously.The effective employment of the whole society is effectively improved,and urban unemployment rate has improved,especially compared with the results of CMW-HSH,under the background of increase of effective employment of the whole society,the urban unemployment rate has not increased significantly.Industrial output effect is more obvious,especially the growth rate of industrial output of the real estate,construction,health and social work,education,and insurance industry is rapid,which reflects that the demand for housing,public goods and social security is in a rapid growth.The implementation of the basic public service policy can effectively promote the process of citizenization of peasant workers,bringing more stable urban labor supply to improve the employment of the whole society.It is of great benefit to the industries output which is related to the basic public service policy,especially the tertiary industry.The rapid development of the tertiary industry is not only in line with our country's future industrial structure development goal,but also can absorb a large part of "new citizen" which go through the citizenization of peasant workers.With the help of "two carriages" of consumption and investment,the policy of basic public services equalization for peasant migrants makes obvious positive effect on China's real GDP,and the long-term pulling effect is more remarkable,which means that the policy of basic public services equalization for peasant migrants plays a positive role in improving the welfare of residents.However,due to the relatively fast growth in domestic demand,the price of imported goods is lower than that of domestic finished goods,and the level of net exports will gradually decline and the trade balance may be turned into a deficit,which may induce the RMB suffer a certain downward pressure in the future. |
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