Research On The Trade Effects Of American Anti-dumping Against China

Under the background of the re-construction of international economic and trade rules,the developed economies of the West actively promote the development of trad regional integration.The emerging economies are experiencing rapid economic development and technological innovation,and actively compete for the right to formulate trade rules.This smoke-free war has brought rare opportunities for the development of China's foreign trade,and it has also brought thorny challenges.The gradual deepening and expansion of foreign trade in depth and breadth has promoted the deep integration of China's domestic market and international market,but the frequent occurrence of trade friction also requires stronger ability to resist risks in both domestic and export markets..The new opening characteristics of economic globalization require China to maintain industrial security,not only to safeguard export interests,but also to focus on the internationalized domestic market and attach importance to the defense of import shocks.Therefore,it is of great theoretical significance and reference value to reasonably measure the trade effect of anti-dumping and propose effective policy recommendations for improving the application skills of anti-dumping policies in China.Since China's accession to the WTO,the number of anti-dumping complaints against China initiated by the United States has increased significantly.From 2001 to 2015,the United States initiated a total of 109 anti-dumping investigations against China.There were many industries involved in these cases,and the amount involved was huge.China has replaced Japan as the largest target country for US anti-dumping investigations.The negative impact of anti-dumping has seriously hindered the vigorous development of bilateral trade between China and the United States.The anti-dumping motive has long violated the original intention of maintaining a fair and orderly trading environment.Therefore,this paper conducts a comprehensive and in-depth study on the trade restriction effect and trade transfer effect of the US anti-dumping complaint against China.Based on the theoretical basis and case characteristics of the US anti-dumping complaints against China,this paper comprehensively evaluates the industrial relief effect of the US anti-dumping complaints,in order to propose scientific advice to the government and enterprises in effectively responding to anti-dumping complaints.Firstly,this paper reviews the home and abroad research literature on anti-dumping trade effects,including the direct effects,namely trade restriction effect,trade transfer effect,trade turning effect,and the indirect impacts of anti-dumping,namely secondary protection effect,investment leapfrogging effect,welfare effect.Afterwards,this paper summarizes and reviews the existing research literature on the anti-dumping trade effect of the United States against China.This paper comprehensively evaluates the industrial relief effect of the US anti-dumping measures by focusing on trade restriction effect and trade transfer effect.Secondly,this paper analyzes the theoretical basis and case characteristics of US anti-dumping complaints against China.Based on the Cournot production competition model,this paper constructs a complete information dynamic game model including Chinese manufacturers,American manufacturers and third-country manufacturers to verify trade restriction effect and trade transfer effect from the theoretical level.Based on the collection of all the US anti-dumping complaints from 1990 to 2015,this paper has analyzed the characteristics of the US anti-dumping complaints against China from the number of complaints,the country of the responded country,the amount involved,the industry involved and the final anti-dumping tax rate.These analysis results can serve the empirical analysis of the following.Thirdly,based on the existing research literature at home and abroad,this paper collects and sorts out the US anti-dumping complaints against China in 2003-2013,the six-level HS code of the products involved,the trade flow data of the countries involved and the non-involved countries,to build a dynamic panel model.This paper establishes a dynamic panel model to empirically analyze the impact of US anti-dumping against China on the import value and import quantity of the products involved in the country involved,as well as the industry differences of this impact,the impact on the import value share and import quantity share of related products in non-related countries,as well as the industry differences of this impact,and explain these effects separately.The empirical analysis of the trade restriction effect shows that anti-dumping tax will result in a significant decline in the import value and import quantity of the products involved,that is,the US anti-dumping complaints against China have a significant trade restriction effect which lasts at least three years.The empirical analysis of trade transfer effect shows that the levy of punitive anti-dumping duties leads to the transfer of the import value share and import quantity share of the products involved to the non-responded country,that is,the US anti-dumping complaints against China have a significant trade transfer effect.Combining the analysis results of trade restriction effect and trade transfer effect,this paper argues that the US anti-dumping against China has not produced good relief effects on its domestic industry.Finally,based on the results of the above empirical analysis,this paper summarizes the implications of US anti-dumping complaints against China,and gives policy recommendations from the perspective of government and enterprises.In view of the characteristics of the US anti-dumping complaints and the mechanism of trade effects,this paper believes that the government should encourage the enterprises to open up diversified export markets,actively carry out intergovernmental negotiations on China's market economy status,and constantly improve anti-dumping laws and regulations.In addition,enterprises must also fully prepare,actively respond to anti-dumping complaints,and actively use the strategy of go-out to make foreign investment.