The Effect Of Antidumping On Trade And Welfare

With the accelerated process of economic globalization, antidumping has become the most frequently used method of trade protection. Since China became one of the members of WTO, trade friction between China and U.S. escalated, which means China has become the largest target country. So it is meaningful to study the impact of antidumping on trade and domestic welfare, which can provide a reference for the healthy development of bilateral trade. First, Based on the summary of previous study, this paper describes the current antidumping situation between China and U.S. summarizes the reasons of US antidumping, and introduces several trade impact of antidumping.Second, this paper uses the data of U.S. anti-dumping from 1990-2010. It shows that there do exist restriction effect, which means the import value is significantly reduced because of antidumping file, despite the restriction effect is short-term. This paper also uses counterfactual analysis method to study in the case that if the United States did not initiate anti-dumping to China. It turns out that there is a big difference between the expected and actual value, proving once again that the anti-dumping has a strong trade restriction effect, this paper finds that the anti-dumping has trade diversion effect, that in two consecutive years after initiating anti-dumping, the United States dropped the import share from China significantly. It also finds that the number of countries involved in the anti-dumping has a significant impact on the trade diversion effect. And the determination of antidumping results significantly affects the size of these two effects. Classified by NAICS code,this paper further studies the welfare effect of the U.S. anti-dumping, including the effect on employment, output and price. It turns out the antidumping significantly promotes the employment and output, though there is a certain lag. Because it takes some time for U.S. domestic enterprises to adjust production scale. Through regression analysis on prices,this paper finds that the anti-dumping significantly raises the price of the product concerned, and reducesconsumer welfare...