| CAFTA, the world’s largest free trade area, has an important impact on China, ASEAN andthe world economy and people’s life.However, CAFTA will still face numbers of opportunities aswell as impediments.At present, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has experienced a "golden years",it will enter a higher stage, higher demand, higher levels of "diamond decade." So it is worthresearching trade effects and the future development trend of CAFTA, which is essential for thefuture development of CAFTA.Through custom union and free trade theory, it analyzes trade creation effect and tradediversion effect, and using the gravity model examines the theoretical results. The trade status ofCAFTA is described by the chapter three.In addition,the chapter four show that CAFTA also has atrade diversion effect, and the growth of trade creation effect is also relatively small. The thesisshows that CAFTA exists trade creation effect and trade diversion effect, the trade diversion effectis smaller than the trade creation effect, and the trade effect is not very evident.The thesis discusses the difficulties and challenges in the CAFTA construction, and it showsthat the inevitable obstacles exist in the development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, includingthe differences in the level of economic development of ASEAN countries, tense political relationsbetween CAFTA members and the imperfect system. To improve and resolve these impediments, itputs forward some reasonable suggestions:the primary task is to enhance mutual trust, and dispelASEAN member countries doubts; China aids underdeveloped countries of ASEAN infrastructureto help narrow the economic gap in ASEAN countries; in order to provide fair bilateral businessand credible trade dispute settlement, resolving the malpractice of disputes mechanism as soon aspossible; China and ASEAN should continue to reduce non-tariff barriers to promote the tradeliberalization.In the future, China and ASEAN will continue to have a higher development. |
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