| Since the Cambodia Royal government was founded in 1993 and the peace was regained,the bilateral economic and trade cooperation of two countries has been fully recovered and developed.In 2002,they signed Sino-ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA)agreement,resulting in rapid development of the bilateral trade.Their total volume of import and export trade have grown to 7.4 billion U.S.dollars in 2018.In terms of their bilateral trade situation,Cambodia remains a trade deficit to China,with a continuously expanded annual gap between imports and exports.In terms of trade structure,Cambodia exports mostly the primary commodity to China but few industrial products.Despite of the well-developed trade situation,there is severe trade imbalance in the bilateral trade cooperation between China and Cambodia.Under a free market mechanism,Cambodia is a highly dollarized state,who implements dual currency system.Their commodity price is marked in U.S.dollars,with the flow rate reaching up to 85 percent.Therefore,the research on the influence of exchange fluctuation of RMB to USD on trade between China and Cambodia is especially necessary.In order to research the actual relationship between exchange rate and import&export trade more clearly and correctly,this paper selects the actual rate of RMB to USD for research.Wherein,the following aspects such as whether the fluctuation of actual rate of RMB has positive or negative influence on trade between China and Cambodia,what’s the influence of actual rate on trade balance and trade structure,and whether the actual rate has influence on trade imbalance between China and Cambodia are all main research contents.For the purpose of researching the influence of actual rate fluctuation of RMB on trade between China and Cambodia,this paper firstly combines theory with empirical research to analyze related exchange rate systems and policies of our country and Cambodia,bases on numerous literatures to know the current domestic and overseas researches on the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance and trade structure.Secondly,this research establishes simple import&export supply model and analyzes the influence of actual rate fluctuation of RMB on trade between China and Cambodia thus to provide theoretical foundation for next research.In view of empirical research,this paper bases on the weighted-average exchange rates and annual trade data of China and Cambodia from 2002 to 2018 after the reform and opening-up of Cambodia,uses Eviews7 software to test the influence of exchange rate on total trade balance of China and Cambodia.Moreover,this paper selects the import-export volumes of different types of commodities involved in trade between China and Cambodia from 2002 to 2017 to research the influencing relationship with actual rate.Firstly,this research introduces the trade balances and trade structures of China and Cambodia roughly,conducts qualitative and intuitional analysis on trade between China and Cambodia;secondly,this paper conducts unit root and co-integration test for related data to investigate the influence of RMB exchange rate on import trade balances and trade structures of China and Cambodia,analyzes the main influencing factors and corresponding influencing degree.And finally,this paper makes summary on the empirical analysis result and gets the conclusion that the influence of actual rate fluctuation of RMB to USD on import of China from Cambodia is larger than export of China to Cambodia,meanwhile,actual rate decline can improve the trade surplus of China to Cambodia.Furthermore,this paper proposes policy suggestions on promoting healthy and harmonious development of trade between China and Cambodia and promoting RMB exchange rate reform,including establishing more scientific and reasonable RMB exchange rate mechanism to conform to the demands of our country on foreign trade from perspective of RMB exchange rate reform,researching the influence of RMB exchange rate on trade between China and Cambodia,promoting bilateral trade development and related trade policy formulation,promoting harmonious development of China and Cambodia from perspective of trade between China and Cambodia. |
