The Research Of Effects About Rmb Real Rxchange Rate Fluctuations On Sino-US Trade Balance

Since the mid-1990s, China has continued to maintain trade surplus trend with the U.S., so Sino-US trade balance has became unbalanced increasingly. The U.S. government blamed it to the China’s exchange rate policy and urged Chinese government strongly on the appreciation of RMB in order to reduce China’s trade surplus with itself.Increasing Sino-US trade unbalance affects the normal trade between two countries which harms to the sustained and stable development of bilateral economics. This paper pays attention to the impact of the actual RMB exchange rate fluctuations on Sino-US Trade Balance, understanding whether the appreciation of the RMB can improve Sino-US trade unbalance and if China can use the RMB exchange rate policies to improve the structure of import and export commodities which can solve the so-called RMB underestimated hazard theory proposed by United States and other Western countries. This has a very important practical significance to promote the harmonious development of the Sino-US trade even the economy of two countries.On this respect, this paper first reviews the basic theory of exchange rate on the trade balance, mainly involved trade elasticity and exchange rate pass incomplete theory. At the same time, I identify the research progress of domestic and foreign scholars on this aspect, I found that they did not come into a unified conclusion. Then,this paper do the further statistical description of the real exchange rate of RMB and Sino-US trade balance, analysis the correlation relation between them. On this basis, through the use of the stationary test, cointegration test, impulse response method and so on, I use an econometric model on2006-2012years monthly degree and the real effective exchange rate index, Sino-US trade balance index, the total domestic retail sales index of social consumer goods in China and the United States as samples to estimate the impact of the real exchange rate of RMB to Sino-US trade balance.I conclude that the real exchange rate of RMB does have an impact on Sino-US trade balance, a country’s currency devaluation can indeed improve the trade balance, but domestic social spending level of the two nations has bigger impact on it.Finally, based on the analysis of the results, this paper analyzes the influencing factors affect Sino-US trade balance which are Sino-US statistical differences, structural problems of Sino-US trade and U.S. enterprises’investment in China. On the basis, I make policy recommendations, From China’s respect, involving improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, optimize China’s export commodity structure, increase domestic spending power and encourage Chinese enterprises to invest overseas. However, America need to change trade policy to China, relax restrictions on exports, rather than a simple appreciation of the RMB exchange rate from China to solve the problem.