Simulating Land Use Dynamics Under Multiple Scenarios Based On Fuzzy Cellular Automata

The land is the basis for human survival and development.However,with the rapid development of the economy and the accelerating process of urban expansion,it has brought about a series of ecological environment and urban problems.Therefore,the simulation of urban space expansion is essential for the rational planning of urban land use and the promotion of sustainable urban development.Taking the original Jinzhou District of Dalian as an example,this paper starts from the multi-source data such as land use data and statistical yearbook data from 1988 to 2015 and starts from the neighborhood scale,conversion rules and simulation mechanism that affect the accuracy of CA simulation.Algorithms,multiple logistic regression models,and constrained CA models to compensate for the shortcomings of CA’s "bottom-up" simulation mechanism by adding "top-down" global factors,and use PA,OA,FoM,and Kappa parameters to validate the model.The simulation accuracy simulates the spatial distribution characteristics of future land use on the basis of four scenarios,reveals the possible spatial distribution of land use in the future under the existing development policy,analyzes the urban expansion scale and urban expansion pattern of Jinzhou District,and proposes rational development suggest.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Compared with the traditional CA model,the fuzzy CA model constructed in this paper has the best simulation effect on each land use type under the 5×5 cell neighborhood scale and fuzzy node C.(2)Under different simulation scenarios,the spatial source of urban construction expansion has caused spatial heterogeneity of urban space land use.Various policy factors should be considered comprehensively in the formulation of urban development planning.(3)Jinshitan Street is a national-level scenic spot.Under the four simulated scenarios,the construction land changes are more significant.Therefore,the relevant planning part should pay more attention to this phenomenon.(4)The construction land of each street in Jinzhou District showed an increasing trend from 1988 to 2015,and the rest of the land showed a decreasing trend,but the growth and decline of each street were different.Between 1988 and 2020,the focus of urban development in Jinzhou District showed a trend of expanding along the city’s main roads and expanding to coastal areas.(5)From the perspective of land use spatial layout and scale of construction land expansion and spatial characteristics in Jinzhou District in 2020,Jinzhou District should strengthen the protection of basic farmland,ecological environment and coastal ecological environment in the future development process.Control the total amount of land used for construction in Jinzhou District to achieve sustainable development in Jinzhou District.