Prediction Of Sales Volume Of Split Air Conditioner Based On Time Series

Sales volume forecasting refers to the estimation of the sales volume of all products or specific products in a specific period of time in the future.Through sales volume forecasting,retail enterprises can fix production by selling,arrange purchasing according to sales volume forecasting,avoid overstocking of product purchasing too much or too early,effectively control operating costs;can manage product inventory reasonably and ejffectively,set up inventory early warning for products,do replenishment work well in advance,avoid insufficient supply of products and hinder the realization of sales.WX Trading Co.,Ltd.is a retail enterprise mainly engaged in split air conditioner.Due to the characteristics of large stock capital,large storage space and seasonal fluctuation of sales volume,the operation and management of split air conditioner have caused many problems,and the overall market demand of split air conditioner industry has slowed down,and the"price war" has become increasingly fierce.Therefore,how to effectively predict sales volume and assist decision-making,so as to reduce the company's operating costs,improve operating efficiency and enhance market competitiveness,is extremely important for WX Trading Co.,Ltd.In this paper,sales forecasting theory and several commonly used forecasting methods are sorted out,studied and compared,and then time series analysis method is selected as the theoretical research object of this paper.Then,based on the sales volume data of WX Trading Co.,Ltd.from 2014 to 2018,this paper uses time series analysis method to analyze,forecast and verify the validity of the method.The validation results show that the time series decomposition multiplication model can effectively predict the sales volume and monthly sales distribution of the split air conditioner in WX Trading Co.,Ltd.Finally,this paper uses the validated time series analysis method to forecast the sales volume of split air conditioner of WX Trading Co.,Ltd.in 2019.Based on the forecasting results,it puts forward suggestions on the procurement,warehousing,sales,distribution and installation schedule of WX Trading Co.,Ltd.in 2019,and puts forward optimization suggestions on the subsequent sales volume forecasting and information system construction of WX Trading Co.,Ltd..