The Study Of Forecast Based On AC Compressor Company’s Sales

The Air Compressor business develops rapidly at present in China. The intensive competition in this business area results in much uncertainty in the market. And the inaccurate forecast could increase production cost and lower service quality for the customer. Therefore, it is essential for each company to use accurate sales forecast methods to direct the operation.Based on AC (Wuxi) Company’s actual sales figure of one product, the dissertation combines theory and practice, mainly investigates the various forecast methods in production applications. First of all, the article studies in depth the background and current situation of the compressor industry, introduces AC (Wuxi) Company’s background and points out the significance of study of the subject matter in actual applications. Secondly it focuses on the basis theory of forecast and related forecast methods, including qualitative and quantitative forecast methods, and discusses different application for the various occasions. Then the article tries to find a suitable forecast method for application, based on the forecast theory which is studied before, as well as AC’s sales figure. The dissertation selects major regression analysis of the single regression model, the multiple regression model, and time series analysis of two curves model and seasonal fluctuation estimate model. Throughout the contrast of the prediction guide lines, such as correlativity, MAD and MSE, the author makes a comprehensive analysis of the methods, and tries to find out a more suitable forecast model for products sales of AC Company to promote sales forecast theory and methods of application. At the end there is a summary of the study subjects, to find forecast system for real sales and gives some prospects to the research of the forecast.The dissertation changes the sales forecast of AC Compressor Company from subjective to scientific. Through the study of this subject, the comparison of different methods of the forecasting models, we try to identify a suitable forecasting method for AC’s sales, establish and improve a system of choice with the forecasting methods, which can be used actually. Not only is it good for AC’s development in future, it also provides the reference method of the sales forecast for the enterprises in compressor industry.