| In recent years,the Sino-Latin America relationships have become dramatically closer.It is hopeful that Latin America countries will become the “last puzzle” of the “One Belt and One Road”,the magnificent blueprint of China.And it will be a historic new opportunity for Sino-Latin America economic and trade cooperation.On this background,it is necessary to further study China’s export potential to Latin America and its determinants.After concluding latest achievements of relative literature,this paper analyzes general situations of the trade between China and main Latin America countries.Upon this basis,Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model and Inefficiency Model are introduced.This paper uses data of China and 40 trade partners during 2002-2016 to conduct empirical research on the potential and trade efficiency of China’s export to Latin America and its determinants.It is indicated that the demographic dividend vanished in China’s export,and the trade partners’ belonging to APEC as well as China,communication infrastructure and rule of law of influence the export efficiency positively;meanwhile the trade efficiency of China’s export to Latin America is at a relatively low level and the mean export efficiency is on a declining curve in recent years,proving that there is huge potential in China’s export to Latin America,especially Middle America Latin countries.At last,the outcomes of the research are summarized and specific suggestions are given: reinforcing bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanism and accelerating the development of regional integration;establishing China’s institutional environment evaluation system and assisting trade partners in improving institutional level;enhancing communication infrastructure level and getting through trade channels;optimizing export commodity compositions and expanding trade scale to infrastructure,resource,technology,agriculture and so on;aiming to achieve export potential fully and promoting balanced development both at the country and continent levels. |
