A Study On The Impact Of China's Odi In Asean On China's Domestic Investment

According to the international economics theory,a country's ODI through many channels to influence the country's domestic investment(DI).However,there has been controversy in the academic community over whether ODI promotes or curbs domestic investment.This paper explores the answer to this question based on the relationship between China's ODI in ASEAN and DI in China.This is a common issue for Chinese companies to invest in ODI,actively participate in the “One Belt and One Road” national strategy,and promote domestic investment and economic development,and common achieve the "win-win" inside and outside.It has good theoretical significance,practical significance and policy reference value.This paper mainly studies from the following aspects: First,this paper analyzes the status,trends and characteristics of flow and inventory of China's ODI to ASEAN,which provides realistic foundation for the empirical research part of this article;Second,this paper from two aspects: short-term and long-term,deeply analyzes a country's ODI channels and mechanism of the impact on domestic investment,which lays a solid theoretical foundation for the empirical research part of this paper;Third,this paper selects China's ODI to the 10 ASEAN countries,China's domestic investment and mixed type panel macro data from 2003 to 2016,using the panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR)to empirically test and analyze the short-term impact and influence of the China's ODI in ASEAN on China's domestic investment,and applying the system of generalized moment estimation method(GMM)to overcome the problem of endogenous and examine and explore long-term effect of China's ODI in ASEAN on China's domestic investment.The innovation of this paper lies in: First,research method innovation.This paper incorporates ODI and DI into a unified analysis framework.It examines the short-term impact and long-term impact of a country's ODI on its DI from the theoretical and empirical perspectives,as well as the differences between the two impacts.Second,research perspective innovation.The related research has rarely focused on the relationship between ODI and DI.This paper selects panel data from China and 10 ASEAN countries to explore qualitativelyand quantitatively what impact China's ODI in ASEAN will have on China's DI,which promote and supplement the research of related fields.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions: First,China's ODI in ASEAN has generally on the rise.Characteristics and disadvantages coexist.Second,the theoretical analysis shows that in the short term,a country's ODI will likely have a negative substitutional effect on domestic investment by squeezing domestic financial resources and other channels.In the long-term,it will have a positive promotional effect on domestic investment through the influence mechanisms in four aspects.Third,empirical results show that China's ODI in ASEAN has a short-term impact on China's domestic investment,this impact is the significant negative blocking effect.China's ODI in ASEAN has a significant long-term promotional effect on domestic investment.However,there are many reasons for this long-term impact.