| With the development of regional economic cooperation,bilateral and even multilateral deepening economic and cooperative relations has become an inevitable trend.Fruit is one of the most important economic crop in C hina.Under the background of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,analyze the growth path of C hina’s fruit export to ASEAN has a great significance,so that the development of C hina fruit trade can be further promoted.Based on the theory of Heterogeneous enterprise trade model,this paper analyzes the path and effect of the growth of C hina’s fruits export to ASEAN.The binary marginal growth of China’s fruit export ASEAN is decomposed by the method of binary marginal contribution,which analyzes the dual marginal growth of C hina’s fruit exports from the four perspectives: quantity effect,price effect,new product effect and vanishing fruit effect specialty.And the effect of variable trade cost,constant trade cost,economic scale,fruit export ability,early harvest plan and external impact on fruit export binary margin were analyzed by using panel data to construct a fixed effect model.Statistical analysis of C hina-ASEAN fruit trade situation,we can find that C hina ’s fruit exports to ASEAN has been rapidly develop;The kinds of China’s fruit exports to ASEAN are concentrated,the main varieties o f fruits are apples,oranges,pears,citrus,etc..Thailand,Vietnam has become the largest fruit market of C hina’s fruit.With the early harvest plan implementation,C hina-ASEAN fruit export growth have began to accelerate,the fruit export prices and C hina’s tropical fruit exports were increased.The results of empirical test shows that China’s fruits export growth mainly depend on the marginal growth of growth,and the contribution of extensive margin to export growth is in a small scale,and the growth of intensive margin is affected by the increase of quantity,which is greater than the effect of price increase.The analysis of the influencing factors on the growth of China’s fruit export growth margin shows that the dual marginal margins of China’s fruit exports to ASEAN will be affected by the variable trade cost.The impact of the economic scale on the dual margins of Chinese fruit exports has two sides.The marginal effect of fruit export growth is negative,and the marginal effect of the growth of fruit export growth is positive.the degree of economic freedom of trade object will greatly affect the expansion of C hina’s fruit exports,C hina Fruit export capacity is positive for the dual marginal effect,fruit production can promote the growth of marginal growth.To reduce the trade barriers will have a positive effect to promote the growth of extensive margin and intensive margin of fruit exports.Intensive margin is vulnerable by external shocks,while the extensive marginal impact by the external economic impact is not significant.In order to promote the fruit trade in China and optimize the marginal growth structure of C hinese fruit exports,this paper puts forward some suggestions.We should take some measures to reduce the trade cost,establish the fruit brand,adjust the export structure and increase more policy support. |
