| As an important financial decision of modern enterprises,investment activities directly affect other financial decisions of enterprises.From the perspective of historical development,overinvestment in enterprises is more serious than the optimal investment decision.Therefore,in order to effectively manage the enterprise’s investment behavior,we need to sort out the factors that cause the enterprise’s overinvestment.At present,domestic and foreign scholars pay more attention to the microcosmic aspects on the influencing factors of overinvestment in enterprises,and most of the researches on macroscopical level are the governance of overinvestment problems.As a general macroeconomic phenomenon,inflation has always been widely concerned by academics and practitioners.In addition,we are still relatively passive on management of expectations.Therefore,this paper argues that it is necessary to study the impact of overinvestment on micro-individual behavior of enterprises from the macroeconomic environment of expected inflation.Based on the data of all A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2016,this paper investigates the impact of expected inflation on enterprise’s overinvestment and how the expected inflation affects the enterprise’s overinvestment.Based on a comprehensive review of relevant literature both at home and abroad,this paper summarizes the literature about the economic consequences of expected inflation,the factors influencing overinvestment in enterprises,the relationship between expected inflation and enterprise’s overinvestment,and cost of debt capital and enterprise’s overinvestment.Then,based on the concept of expected inflation,enterprise’s overinvestment and cost of debt capital,this paper summarizes the theoretical basis of rational expectation theory,information asymmetry theory,principal-agent theory and signal transmission theory.Based on these,this paper proposes hypotheses and builds models for empirical analysis.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between expected inflation and the enterprise’s overinvestment,that is,the higher expected inflation,the more the enterprise’s overinvestment.And cost of debt capital is the part of intermediation on the relationshipbetween expected inflation and the enterprise’s overinvestment,that is,the effect that the rising of expected inflation increases the enterprise’s overinvestment can have a direct impact,but from another perspective,such an impact mechanism can also be indirect that the cost of debt capital plays a conductive role between expected inflation and the enterprise’s overinvestment.Then for the reliable and stable conclusion,the paper also makes a robust test.At last,it summarizes the main conclusions and puts forward the corresponding policy and recommendations from the perspectives of the government and the managers.At the same time,it also points out the research deficiencies and future prospects.Therefore,on the one hand,the research results of this paper not only make us facilitate the understanding of the mechanism of expected inflation and deepen the understanding of the expected behavior of micro-enterprises,but also further enrich the macro level theory about enterprise’s investment behavior acting as the micro-based enterprise’s investment behavior of the macro-economy.At the same time,it further complements macroeconomic factors and micro-enterprise behavior theory.On the other hand,it explores whether it can play an intermediary role in the relationship between expected inflation and enterprise’s overinvestment from the perspective of cost of debt capital,which provide effective evidence for the mechanism of expected inflation on the enterprise’s overinvestment and will enrich the theory of cost of debt capital to a certain extent. |
