The Impact Of Inflation Expectation On Corporate Bank Debt Financing

Inflation is an important macroeconomic influencing factor in corporate capital structure decision-making.How to effectively use inflation expectations to adjust corporate capital structure is of great significance to avoid enterprises losing losses in the future and maximizing corporate value.Due to the small proportion of corporate bond financing in China,commercial credit is not sensitive to expected inflation,the equity financing cycle is long,and the response to the expected inflation rate is slow.In terms of the current financial system development,banks still dominate,bank loans.It is the most important external financing source for enterprises.This paper chooses bank debt as the starting point to explore how inflation expectations affect corporate bank debt,and at the same time refines the heterogeneity of inflation expectations for corporate bank debts with different debt levels and property rights;The impact of inflation expectations on corporate bank debt adjustments is also analyzed for the heterogeneity of inflation expectations for corporate debt adjustments of different debt levels and property rights.This paper takes the 2007-2016 Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share listed company as a research sample and builds a dynamic panel model using panel data.Through empirical analysis,it is found that:First,the expected inflation rate is significantly positively correlated with the debt level of corporate Banks,indicating that the debt financing of corporate Banks will take the impact of expected inflation into consideration.Second,radical enterprises with relatively high debt levels should make rational decisions in anticipation of future inflation to avoid capital waste caused by aggressive debt.Conservative enterprises should seize the opportunity to optimize the capital structure,so that the positive correlation between inflation expectations and the debt level of conservative enterprises is more obvious.Thirdly,because of the convenience of borrowing,the managers of state-owned enterprises ignore the possible reduction of financing cost caused by inflation,and non-state-owned enterprises pay more attention to the benefits brought by inflation,so the positive correlation between inflation expectations and the bank debt level of non-state-owned enterprises is more obvious.Further research shows that the expected inflation rate is positively correlated with the bank debt adjustment,and the higher the expected inflation rate,the larger the corporate bank debt adjustment.The higher the expected inflation rate,the more conservative corporate bank debt adjustment than the radical corporate bank debt adjustment.The higher the expected inflation rate,the greater the adjustment shown by non-state enterprises due to their greater focus on the resulting earnings.In view of this,this paper proposes the following suggestion:In terms of operation,enterprises need to establish a sound forecasting mechanism for the inflation rate,reasonably estimate the optimal capital structure,and avoid the impact of missed opportunities and budget errors on enterprise operation.The government should improve the financing channels for private enterprises,and private enterprises should improve their reputation and win market trust.When formulating macro-control policies,the central bank should take into account the expected factors of microeconomic individuals.Since inflation has a self-realization mechanism,it is expected that inflation will lead to actual inflation.The central bank should release positive signals to guide and stabilize market expectations and enhance the central bank’s decision-making credibility.We will actively promote the development of the corporate bond market,steadily increase the share of direct financing for enterprises,and make the financial market better serve the real economy.