Study On Farmers’ Poverty Vulnerability And Its Influencing Factors From The Perspective Of Family Life Cycle

After nearly 40 years of unremitting efforts,China has made remarkable achievements in poverty alleviation and the incidence of poverty has dropped drastically.However,while achieving success,the problem of poverty in China remains outstanding.In 2016,China still had 43.35 million poor people.Post-emergent and static measures of poverty and poverty research may lead to"vicious cycle of poverty" and increase the government’s difficulty in helping the poor.Therefore,the government and anti-poverty institutions need to focus on current and future poverty rather than the poverty that has occurred in the past.This requires that research on poverty be forward-looking and dynamic.Poverty vulnerability is the indicator that the probability of falling into poverty in the future is an ex ante measure of poverty,with a strong forward-looking outlook.In view of the vulnerability of the poor,scholars have systematically and effectively studied the analytical framework,the measurement methods and the influencing factors of vulnerability,making an important contribution to the control and solution of current and future poverty.There are many factors affecting the vulnerability of poverty,mainly due to family characteristics,community characteristics,risk impact,social policies and other aspects,while the family life cycle describes the journey from the establishment of the family to the end of the family history.The family faces different constraints and has different elements and needs in all stages from establishment to completion,so there may be differences in the characteristics and behavior decisions of all types of families.When all kinds of families are at different stages of development,there may be differences in family development ability due to differences in population composition,labor force structure and economic needs,resulting in different probabilities that different families will fall into poverty in the future,that is,they have different Poverty vulnerability.In view of this paper builds a family life cycle model suitable for the actual situation in rural China,the life cycle of rural households is divided into seven stages:initial stage,standard core period,mature core period,extended core period,stable core period,recession period,stage.Based on the survey data of farmers in Hubei Province in 2017,this paper explores the impact of household life cycle on the vulnerability of rural households and studies the factors that affect the vulnerability of rural households in different stages of family life cycle.The results show that family life cycle has a significant impact on peasants’ poverty vulnerability.Farmers in other life cycle stages(except for the standard core and expansion of core families)have a higher vulnerability vulnerability than those in the shrinking families.There are differences in the influencing factors of farmers’ vulnerability in different life stages:the better the health status of head of household,the lower the vulnerability of start-up family poverty;the older the head of household,the better the health condition,the higher the average years of education of family labor,the labor burden coefficient The lower the level of ownership of productive assets and the greater number of relatives who often come and go,the poorer the standard core family poverty is;the worse the health status of head households,the higher the labor burden coefficient,the less productive assets,the mature core The higher the household vulnerability vulnerability is,the older the head of household is,the better the health condition is,and the lower the labor burden coefficient is,the more the productive assets are owned and the more frequent the relatives are,and the lower the vulnerability of the core family poverty is.,The better the health status,the more productive assets and the more frequent relatives,the lower the vulnerability of stable nuclear family poverty.The higher the family labor burden coefficient,the less productive property ownership and frequent relatives,The greater the vulnerability of family poverty during the recession period.Therefore,the government and anti-poverty institutions need to focus on the poverty vulnerability of rural households and adopt accurate help and relief measures based on the laws and characteristics of various families in different life stages to improve the accuracy and rationality of relevant policies.