Research On The Spatial Spillover Effects Of Monetary Policies In Major Economies In The World

In the deepening of economic globalization of the international big background,the countries all over the world not only on the trade and investment between competition and cooperation,on the implementation of economic policymaking also influence each other,especially economic giant multinational spillover effects of monetary policy in recent years more and more obvious,the world’s major economies during the subprime crisis on monetary policy ’is this the best picture.So,people began to more widely concern to monetary policy research of multinational spillover effect.The world economy on the sensitivity of the United States,the European Union,Japan and other countries continue to rise,so the rich world’s monetary policy by international scholars extensive research,but relatively speaking,some developing countries are slowly rise of the monetary policy effect,wide attention has not been,so this article will China,Brazil and other developing countries into the model were analyzed.In this paper the related theory of monetary policy multinational spillover effect has carried on the correlation analysis,first of all,under the condition of open economy,on the issue of the monetary policy of multinational spillover effect,this paper establish a model to study the two countries the spillover effects of monetary policy.Secondly,based on spatial econometrics on the spillover effect of advantage,this paper adopts the spatial panel model for empirical analysis.Sample selection of world gross domestic product(GDP)in the top 10 countries and regions,are: the United States,China,Japan,the euro zone,India,Brazil,Canada,South Korea,Australia,Russia.Variables for each country model contains 2001-2015,GDP,money supply,real interest rates six variables,such as the weight matrix is expressed weights of bilateral trade.In this paper,the main conclusions are: under the condition of open economy,international monetary policy transmission exists spillover effects,the influence of the central bank is difficult to effectively control the optimal currency supply,domestic and international factors lead to more difficult to predict the change of the demand for money,which affects the development of the economy.The empirical results show that the money supply in the region of macroeconomic direct effect is negative,the spillover effect is positive,that increase the money supply,the region’s macroeconomic negative impact,but positive effects on the adjacent region will be.Shows that the money supply in the control of the region economy is in a state of overuse,various countries and regions should be prudent use of macroeconomic regulation and control means of increasing the money supply.Real interest rates in the region of the direct effect of macroeconomic,the spillover effect is negative,indicates that interest rate is the effective measure to control the region’s macroeconomic,can produce positive influence macroeconomic,of this area show that the interest rates on macroeconomic macro-control will bring good results,but the implementation of the interest rate policy will have a negative effect on adjacent areas of macroeconomic,unfavorable to adjacent region’s economic development,this side also proved that many scholars in recent years the United States and other developed countries adopted a policy of quantitative easing of monetary policy of "beggar-thy-neighbour" effect of the results of the study.For this purpose,the need for coordination and cooperation between the monetary policy,in order to reduce negative spillover effects.