A Study Of The Spillover Effects Of Changes In China's Monetary Policy On The 10 ASEAN Countries

With the continuous changes in the world economic pattern,the deepening of economic globalization and the increasing economic dependence among countries,the changes in a country's monetary policy have also more and more significantly affected the economies of other countries.As China is the largest developing country in the world,China's economy has maintained a rapid and steady growth over the past 40 years of reform and opening up.China's international clout has also been increasing with each passing day.In2013,China began to advocate the Belt and Road initiative and advocated the construction of a transnational economic belt.As the gateway to the south of China,the ten countries in Southeast Asia are particularly important.Southeast Asian countries have been ranking among the top five trading partner countries in China in recent years and have many close cooperation with China in such fields as politics,economy,science and technology,culture and education.In order to further strengthen economic and trade ties with Southeast Asian countries,the Chinese government has actively promoted the negotiation process of the RCEP.The Chinese government actively seeks to build the Trans-Asian Railway to communicate with China and all countries in Southeast Asia.The Chinese leaders emphasize that China hopes to work hand in hand with ASEAN countries to further strengthen cooperation and exchange,resume long-standing and close relations and realize the common development of China and ASEAN countries.Against this background,studying the spillover effect of China's monetary policies on the ASEAN countries has far-reaching theoretical and practical significance.By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE),this paper constructs a three-part model of family,manufacturer and currency authority to logarithmically linearize the system equation to get the equilibrium equation.The calibration estimation method is used to estimate the parametersin the equation.When the interest rate rules and Under the rule of money supply,we study the impact of the change of China's monetary policy on the overall economy of ASEAN.The results show that China's monetary policy changes do have a spillover effect on ASEAN countries.(1)Under interest rate rules,the downward adjustment of interest rates in China will result in the reduction of the overall interest rate and inflation of ASEAN,the decline in exports and output,and the increase in household consumption and imports.(2)Under the money supply rule,China's increase in the money supply will cause the overall interest rate of ASEAN,the decline in inflation,the decline in exports and output,and the increase in household consumption and imports.Last,Through the global vector autoregressive model(GVAR),we study the spillover effect of the change of China's monetary policy on each ASEAN member country.Under the GVAR model,set China's monetary growth rate and interest rate as the impact,the study of the main macroeconomic variables in various ASEAN countries,the results show that under both of these shocks,China's policy changes to ASEAN The main macroeconomic variables of the ten countries have obvious spillover effects.Through the above conclusions,this paper put forward appropriate policy recommendations to make China a better internship monetary policy.