An Empirical Study On The Spillover Effects Of Monetary Policy In The Era Of The Post Financial Crisis Era

In recent years, with the deepening of the global economic system and financial system, the degree of mutual influence of monetary policy is also increasing. Since the outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis in 2007, the Fed began to innovate monetary policy tools, to inject liquidity into the country, and when the domestic real economy cannot accommodate the time, it will produce a strong liquidity overflow effect. Such a large scale of international hot money has not only raised the price of international commodities, but also concentrated on the emerging market countries that have taken the lead to recovery, resulting in input inflation, which has a very negative impact on the financial and economic system. In this regard, China has increased the number and price of monetary policy tools, especially the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan put forward the theory of the pool". The sterilization operations means that future bigger money invested, the liquidity injection in a certain extent and through the way of trade, interest rate and exchange rate flows back to the United States, the economic generation "spillover effect". So, this paper mainly focuses on the empirical research on the spillover effects of the monetary policy game between China and the United States.First of all, through the comparative analysis of the spillover effects of the two countries' monetary policy, we can know that there is a strong linkage between the two countries' monetary policy, and a country's monetary policy will affect the price, trade and output level of other countries through trade, interest rates and other channels. Among them, the spillover effect of China's monetary policy on the United States is limited, and the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on China is more obvious.Secondly, based on the AS-IS-LM model, the two countries' monetary policy spillover effects are analyzed, and the direction and strength of the impact of the monetary policy spillover effects are deeply grasped. Research shows that, US monetary policy factors can through various channels of our country produce different degree of spillover effect: from the spillover effect of China, the impact of the broad money supply(M2) more strongly and impact of the CPI is lag; from the point of view of the spillover effect of China's money supply M2, the impact of the United States M2 relatively quickly and strongly, the rest of the factors has different degree of lag; from the point of view of the spillover effect on China's inflation, in addition to the impact of the Sino US interest rate differentials with lag, the impact of other variables were more rapid and lasting. Other aspects of our country monetary policy factors can also have different degree of spillover effects through various channels to the output of the United States, the broad money supply m2 and inflation, and the effect will produce the same features: response range is relatively large, the speed of response is lagging behind. But it is worth noting that the more significant scope of U.S. monetary policy spillover effect in China has a bigger, longer period and effect; spillover effect of China's monetary policy and the United States is relatively not obvious.Finally, some policy recommendations based on the analysis of the above research. We should strengthen the "hot money" regulation to prevent the impact; reduce the impact of international commodities on China's commodity prices; realize the diversification of foreign exchange reserves; accelerate the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism actively promote the internationalization of the RMB.