Spatial-temporal Different Effect Of Land Supply On Housing Price

A "sub-health" state of temporal-spatial unbalance exists in Chinese real estate market,which is manifested as two following characteristics:at temporal level,because of increase and fluctuation of housing price,first-tier and second-tier cities’high housing price difficult to control;from spatial level,the gap of housing prices in different cities is enlarging,and accumulation of inventory of third-tire and fourth-tier cities is increasing.Positive interaction between the real estate market and land supply policy are significant to development of economy.Therefore,according to the land policy of "controlling supply and activating stock land",there are distinct theoretical and practical significance of this paper to analyze spatial-temporal different impact of land supply on housing prices,and to explore a sort of land supply policy that is conducive to the healthier development of the real estate market.Based on the analysis framework of four-quadrant model,this paper analyzes the formation and change mechanism of house price.It further analyzes the current situation of land supply in China,and explores the spatial-temporal mechanism of the different effect of the proportion of the stock land supply on housing price.Then PSTR model to be introduced to reveal the real influence of land supply on housing price in China.The results of the state of land supply and the empirical research show that,among different periods or cities,differences of total land supply or the ratio of stock land supply pose significant influences on the formation of different housing price,which means that land supply pose spatial-temporal different influence on housing price.Such an influence equals to nonlinear influence in PSTR model,which described as coefficients of conductive variables varying from time and space.The influence posed by total land supply is conducted by variables land price and expected.increase of housing price,while the influence posed by the ratio of stock land is conducted by variables land price,total land supply and expected increase of housing price.(1)Neglecting the nonlinear influence of the ratio of stock land supply,we find that when the value of total land supply is far less than its threshold,the coefficients of land price and expected increase of housing price are small,and when total land supply is increasing and closing to its threshold,these coefficients are rapidly enlarge,and then maximizing when total land supply are continually increase.(2)Neglecting the nonlinear influence of total land supply,we find that when the value of the ratio of stock land supply is far less than its threshold,the absolute coefficients of land price,total land supply and expected increase of housing price are small,and when the ratio of stock land supply is increasing and closing to its threshold,these absolute coefficients are rapidly enlarge,and then maximizing when the ratio of stock land supply are continually increase.The real coefficients of land price and expected increase of housing price is negative,which means the increase of the ratio of stock land supply weakens the extent of influences of land price and expected increase of housing price.At meanwhile,because of the nonlinear influence of the ratio of stock land supply on housing price,positive linkage between total land supply and housing price leads to increase of housing price when the government increase total land supply.(3)When the nonlinear influences of such two factors on housing price compound with each other,we find that these different coefficients of land price,total land supply and expected increase of housing price are heaped and thus further lead to the difference of housing price.Besides,because of the impact of the ratio of stock land supply,it is possible that policy of increasing land supply promote the growth of housing price.Therefore,from perspective of land supply policy,a sort of differentiated policy emphasizing the unique characteristic of development of the real estate market of each city’s should be executed to improve the real estate market.According to the condition of housing price or government’s controlling targets,attention should be paid to keep effective cooperation of the quantity of land supply and the extent of activating stock land supply.In other words,in order to keep healthier development of the real estate market,the government should moderately increase the amount of total land supply and slightly and slowly expand the structure of stock land supply for first and second-tier cities to-squeeze out the price bubble and to stabilize housing price,while they should moderately decrease the amount of total land supply and strongly and rapidly expand the structure of stock land supply for first and second-tier cities to rescue the real estate market.From perspective of the regulation of the real estate market,a big deal policy should be established to control the real estate investment.