| Since the reform and opening up,China 's urbanization and industrialization level has risen rapidly,and the economic growth has gradually transited from the early 21st century to the recent high-speed growth.The slowdown of economic growth shows that China's urban economic development is entering the new normality,and the land structure utilization and industrial restructuring and upgrading are also in the key period of transition,the flow of elements between regions or cities accelerates.As the carrier of all socio-economic activities,the change of the configuration of land will undoubtedly have an important influence on the growth of urban economy.Especially with the development and perfection of the land market in China,land price has gradually become an important mechanism to influence the land disposition.The change of land price will not only affect the economic growth of cities directly,but also lead to the flow of relevant elements of cities,which will indirectly affect the economic growth of the city.In view of this,this study tries to explore the concrete influence of land price change on the factor flow and urban economic growth from the theoretical and empirical two aspects,which is of great theoretical and practical significance for the Government to effectively control land prices,to promote rational flow of factors scientifically and to realize the rational development of the city.Firstly,this paper analyzes the influence of land price change on the relative factors of urban economic growth,and then probes into the path and mechanism of the impact of land price change on urban economic growth(including the direct impact on urban economic growth;and through the influence of factor flow and then the indirect impact on urban economic growth).Then,the econometric model(intermediary effect model)is constructed by using the land price data and correlative statistic data of 102-grade cities and above in mainland China 2000-2015.The test analyzes the direct effect of land price change on urban economic growth,and the indirect effect of land price on urban economy through factor flow.In addition,there are further distinctions between the three land-type premium,the different phases of economic development in different cities and the difference between the change of land price,the factor flow and the relationship between urban economic growth.The main findings are as follows:(1)from the characteristics and distribution of land prices,although the local government adopts the different land transfer strategy,leading to commercial clothing,there is a clear gap between the rise and the rate of the three types of land premium,but the analysis can still find that the land price of Chinese cities has been a steady rising trend in recent years,and the rise in the normal fluctuation range has not seen a dramatic rise or decline.(2)from the overall effect of all sample cities,the direct effect and indirect effect of land price change on urban economic growth are present.Direct effect:the direct impact effect of land price change on urban economic growth is present and is positively correlated.Indirect effect:Land price change will have an effect on the development of urban economy by influencing FDI and urban labor force,but the difference is that the rise of land price is negatively related to FDI,and is positively correlated to the urban labor force.In addition,land price changes will also through the other channels other than the two intermediary factors to stimulate urban economic growth.Further,from the commercial premium,the residential premium and the industrial land price respectively,the direct and indirect effects of the commercial premium and residential premium on urban economic growth are identical to the overall effect.But the industrial land price is different,because of the long-term policy influence,its influence on the city economy does not produce the effect through the FDI and the city labor force,but will have the effect to the city economy through other intermediary factor.(3)from the perspective of different stages of economic development,there are also differences in the different indirect effects of development stage.In the city of advanced stage of development,the price of commercial land is positively influenced by urban labor force.The residential land price influences on GDP by FDI and urban labor force partially,and the change of residential land price is negatively correlated with FDI,which is positively correlated with the urban labor force,whereas the industrial land price does not affect the urban economy through FDI and urban labor force,but it will pass other intermediary elements.In the middle stage of the city,commercial land and residential land prices will be partly through the urban labor force to the urban economy,not through FDI impact on the urban economy;From the difference of indirect effect of the above-mentioned residential land price in different cities,FDI is more sensitive to the residential land price in the advanced development stage.(4)The indirect impact effect is different from the perspective of the implementation of the industrial land marketization reform policy.Before the industrial land marketization reform(2000-2006),the effect of industrial land price on urban economic growth not through FDI and urban labor force to urban GDP,but will influence on GDP by other intermediary factors;after 2007-2015 industrial land marketization reform,the industrial land price will have a positive impact on urban economy partly through urban labor force.It shows that the industrial land increase will produce positive effect on urban economy by increasing the agglomeration of urban labor force after the marketization reform of industrial land 2006.Finally,the paper also from the angle of guiding China's Land market orderly development and reasonable control of city land Price,the relevant policy suggestions are put forward:on the one hand,we should further strengthen the strength of market-oriented reform of industrial land,and guide the reasonable rise of industrial land price;On the other hand,to the different stages of economic development of the city,the three types of land price differences in the control policy. |
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