Calculation And Analysis Of The China Potential Growth Rate Based On The DEA Method

Potential economic growth rate,also known as the growth rate of potential output,is not only an important indicator of the economy,but become the main basis for the development of long-term planning in determining the growth of the total economy.Unfortunately,China has not existed a unified approach in the calculation of potential economic growth rate.Therefore,This paper start from the definition of potential growth,propose to a new method,named as DEA method,in the calculation of potential output growth rates,and then analyzes and forecasts the potential output growth rate after combining the national total and representative provinces.The main contents are as follows: First,by analyzing the general growth theories and potential growth theory,the potential output is defined as the output can be achieved when used by highest possible efficiency in all input factors.And then it designed a set of method for the calculation of the potential growth rate,which through a simple analysis of the DEA method,based on DEA method in BCC model.It also selects the Guangdong,Shanxi,and Qinghai province as three representative Provinces,distinguishes them according to China eastern,central and western regions.It implements a five-year cycle of the potential output growth rate estimates on China between 1981-2010 and representative provinces between 1991-2010.Finally,based on the calculation results,it conducts a trend analysis and forecasting to the changes in China potential economic growth.It advocates that the change of China potential economic growth is divided into four stages,and considers that China potential growth rate would eventually stabilize after the potential growth rate of China’s provinces sequentially increase and stabilized.The main innovation of this paper are:(1)made a new definiton of potential output and potential output growth rate;(2)combine the definition that the potential output growth rate this article mentioned,calculate China’s potential output growth rate by using DEA method which is a unconventional method;(3)combined analysis the potential economic growth between representative provinces in different regions and the national economic growth,it is a new research methods study in potential output growth rate.