Research On The Potential Growth Rate Of China’s Regional Economy

Based on the traditional and time-varying parameters,this paper calculates the elasticity of capital output in each region of China.And by means of structural measurement,predict the change of factors in each region of the future period,and then calculate the potential growth rate of each region.In the process of measuring the potential growth rate of each region in the future period,we find that under the influence of delayed retirement and two-child policy,the overall labor supply of the economy is relatively sufficient,but the population aging in the eastern region is more serious than that in the central and western regions.In the later stage of urbanization,the rate of capital growth will decrease in each region during the process of transition from secondary to tertiary industry,but the capital growth rate in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region.The degree of marketization and the improvement of the efficiency of the three industries will increase the total factor productivity of each region.Based on the above mentioned above,the potential growth rate of China’s various regions will be about 3.5%by 2050.In addition the potential growth rate of China’s various regions will reach about 4%by 2050,Considering the slowdown of factor elasticity or faster innovation.China is transforming from secundiparity to tertiary industry,the urbanization process is accelerating,marketization degree is improving,efficiency of tertiary industry begin to emerge slowly rising,Economic structure relying on investment patterns has more relied on the cultivation of human capital and innovation driven,potential growth slowed but growth quality improved.