Research On The Measurement Of Potential Economic Growth Rate Of The Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based On DEA Model

Potential economic growth has always been the core theory and hot topic of macroeconomic research.If a country(region)policy maker can accurately estimate the potential output and potential economic growth rate of a country(region),not only It can accurately grasp the operational situation of the actual economy and the direction of future economic development,and is conducive to formulating a more appropriate economic development strategy.In the short run,estimates based on potential economic growth rates and output gaps will help to analyze whether there is inflationary pressure in the real economy,and also help policymakers to formulate more targeted policy measures to regulate short-term fluctuations in the economy.In the medium and long term,the accurate measurement and prediction of the potential economic growth rate can correctly judge the medium and long-term development trend of the economy,which is necessary for a country(region)policy maker to formulate medium and long-term economic development plans.Since the reform and opening up,the Chinese economy has experienced a period of rapid growth that has never been seen in history.However,since the global financial crisis in 2008,China’s economic growth rate has begun to decline,especially since 2012,when the growth rate began to decline rapidly.From 2013 to 2018,China’s economic growth rate was 7.67%,7.4%,6.9%,6.7%,6.9%,and 6.6%respectively.The miracle of China’s high-speed growth has gradually disappeared,and the overall economic performance has shown a downward trend.So what will the Chinese economy do in the future? What kind of development will be one of the focuses of people talking about.Under the situation that the country’s economicdevelopment has entered a new normal,how will the economy of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration develop,and where the future economic growth is,it is worthy of our study.Therefore,under the strategy of the country to integrate the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration into a new height of 21% of GDP in 2020,estimate the potential economic growth rate of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and analyze the changes in the economic growth rate of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.It is very important to tap its growth potential.Based on the importance of potential output and potential economic growth rate,this paper first sorts out the definition of potential output concepts by various schools,and reorganizes various measurement methods based on the redefinition of the definition of potential economic growth rate.Contrast,and then combine the actual development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration to choose the method and model used.Through discussion,the data envelopment analysis(DEA)is used to measure the potential output and potential economic growth rate of 26 cities in the2000-2017 senior triangular urban agglomeration.Based on the measured results,the distance function is used to estimate the potential economic growth rate.The influencing factors are decomposed,and the main influencing factors such as total factor productivity,capital,and labor are analyzed and the basic direction of the development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is attempted.This study intends to deepen the development theory and measurement methods of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,and also provide guidance for the development of relevant policies for the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Through the research,the paper has obtained the following research results:(1)According to the calculation results,the annual average potential economic growth rate of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2017 is 11.34%,and between 2000 and 2010,long The potential economic growth rate of the triangular urban agglomerations is large,but there is still an upward trend in the fluctuations.After 2010,the potential economic growth rate of the Yangtze RiverDelta urban agglomeration is slowly declining,falling to 7.6% in 2016;(2)Sub-region In view,the economic efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is not high,and the internal economic development is uneven.Among them,Anhui has the largest economic growth potential,followed by Zhejiang,and Shanghai has the smallest economic growth potential.(3)The actual output of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has been lower than the potential output,and the output gap is negative,indicating that the resource allocation of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has been in an inefficient state;(iv)According to the potential economy of the Yangtze River Delta city in 2018-2022 The growth rate is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 7.99% from 2018 to 2022.There is still a certain growth potential for the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration economy in the future;(5)The main driving force for the potential growth of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the factor input,but the technology Progress plays an increasingly important role in economic growth.In the future,the growth momentum of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration should be driven by factor input and efficiency improvement.