The Confirmatory Bias Effect And Its Influencing Factors In The Judgment Of The Pilot's Space Position

Confirmation bias refers to the tendency of individual to seek information and explanation that support existing beliefs,expectations or hypotheses intentionally or unintentionally,while ignoring information and explanation that may be inconsistent with them.It affects the individual's objective evaluation of information,restricts the individual's rational decision-making ability,and reflects the limitation of human cognitive processing.The analysis of aviation accidents shows that the confirmation bias in pilots' decision-making process is an important human factor that causes accidents or incidents,especially in the process of location discovery after lost,pilots misjudge the location of aircraft due to the influence of confirmation bias,which seriously threatens aviation safety.Therefore,based on the cognitive mechanism of confirmation bias and the theory of individual differences,this study explores the confirmation bias in pilots'decision-making and its influence mechanism through the location discovery experiment of map scenarios,aims to enrich and improve the aviation decision making theory,so as to provide theoretical basis and technical support for pilots' selection and training,aviation safety management or the prevention and analysis of aviation human error.Study 1:Two experiments were conducted to explore the relationship between verbal-imagery cognitive style and confirmation bias in the process of location discovery.The experiment 1 examined the effects of cognitive style,cognitive load and their interaction on confirmation bias.Based on the study of 65 college students in formal experiment,it was found that the degree of confirmation bias of individuals with imagery cognitive style was weaker than that of individuals with verbal cognitive style.Cognitive load had a positive impact on confirmation bias,and the effect of cognitive style on confirmation bias only existed under low load condition.The experiment 2 examined the effects of cognitive style,experience level and their interaction on confirmation bias.Based on the study of 34 college students and 28 flying cadets in formal experiments,it was found that the degree of confirmation bias of individuals with imagery cognitive style was weaker than that of individuals with verbal cognitive style,and the effect of experience on confirmation bias only existed in individuals with verbal cognitive style.Study 2:Two experiments were conducted to explore the effects of visual spatial ability,strategy and attention span on confirmation bias in the process of location discovery.The experiment 3 found that visual spatial ability had a negative impact on confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,and different strategies adopted by individuals affected confirmation bias.The experiment 4 found that visual spatial ability had a negative effect on confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,and the attention span had no effect on confirmation bias in the process of location discovery.Based on the above two studies,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)Confirmation bias occurs in the process of location discovery,that is,individuals choose more feature that supports hypothetical location.(2)Verbal-imagery cognitive style affects confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,and the degree of confirmation bias of individuals with imagery cognitive style was weaker than that of individuals with verbal cognitive style.(3)Cognitive load not only affects confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,but also moderates the relationship between verbal-imagery cognitive style and confirmation bias.(4)Experience can help individuals with verbal cognitive style to reduce the degree of confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,and the protective effects of experience is mainly due to the strategies adopted by individuals,rather than the influence of individual attention span.(5)Visual spatial ability affects confirmation bias in the process of location discovery,and the degree of the confirmation bias of individuals with high visual spatial ability is weaker than that of individuals with low visual spatial ability.