| Global climate change has become the biggest threat faced by human beings.It seriously threatens the ecological security of the earth and the long-term development of human society.Therefore,how to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb global warming has become a common challenge for all countries in the world facing environmental problems.Fossil energy combustion is the root cause of climate change.Its greenhouse gas emissions account for more than 80%of total human greenhouse gas emissions.Fossil energy is mainly primary energy such as coal,oil,and gas.The carbon market is an effective policy tool for controlling and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The core is to guide companies to make emission reduction decisions through the supply and demand mechanism to form effective carbon prices.At present,China has become one of the countries with the most greenhouse gas emissions in the world.Both international pressure and energy demand for emission reductions are on the rise,and it is clearly stated that national carbon will be established during the 13th Five-Year Plan market.Therefore,from the perspective of fossil energy prices,this paper studies the dynamic correlation between fossil fuel prices and carbon prices in China,and the specific impact of the three types of fossil energy price changes on different carbon market prices,to accumulate some useful experience for china establishing national carbon market.In the first aspect,on the basis of defining the connotation of fossil energy price and carbon price,the equilibrium price theory is used to analyze the decision of carbon price;then Hicks’ allocation effect theory is used to analyze the substitution effect as well as income effect of fossil energy price changes on energy consumption in the production department.Finally,the analysis of fossil energy prices affect the transmission mechanism of carbon prices.In the second aspect,descriptive statistics are used to analyze the characteristics of fossil fuel prices in China and the carbon price changes in the six carbon market pilot regions,based on which,an empirical study is conducted on the dynamic correlation between fossil fuel prices in China and carbon prices in various pilot regions.Firstly,the DCC-MVGARCH model was used to analyze the dynamic correlation between fossil fuel prices and carbon prices in China;then VAR model was established to dynamically measure the impact of fossil fuel prices in China on carbon prices in each pilot area;finally,impulse response and variance decomposition model were adopted to analyse the impact and the degree of contribution of the changes in classified fossil energy prices to the carbon prices in each pilot region.The conclusions are as follows:(1)China’s fossil energy market is closely linked to the carbon market,and carbon prices are a concentrated reflection of the fossil energy market.When the fossil energy market fluctuates,it will have a significant impact on the carbon market;when the carbon market tightens,it will also cause a certain degree of impact on the fossil energy market.(2)The price transmission mechanism of China’s coal market and carbon market is smoother and the dynamic correlation is more stable;followed by China’s oil market;and finally China’s natural gas market.The impact of the fossil energy market will affect the carbon market to a certain extent,but this degree of impact has shown great differences between China’s carbon trading pilots.(3)The price of China’s coal market has a more pronounced and cyclical impact on the carbon price of each pilot,followed by the Chinese oil market and finally China’s natural gas market;the impact of the three types of fossil energy market on each pilot carbon market shows a great deal of differences.The impact of industrial economic development on the carbon market is mostly negative,but a weak one.The impact of temperature changes on the carbon markets in Tianjin and Shanghai is even more pronounced,while the impact on other carbon markets is not that obvious.(4)The carbon price fluctuations in the carbon pilot regions are mainly contributed by the three types of fossil energy,while the changes in temperature and the contribution of China’s industrial development are relatively small;but the contribution rate of the three types of fossil energy in the price fluctuations of various pilot carbon markets it also shows great differences. |
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