Research On The Design And Application Of Weather Futures Products In My Country

With the intensification of global warming and the greenhouse effect,the threat of weather factors has become one of the high-risk factors that are difficult for humans to predict and deal with.As a tool that can effectively transfer weather risks,weather futures have been widely applied to various related industries in mature foreign markets and achieved good weather risk management effects.There are large differences among regions in China in terms of weather.The uncertainty of basic indicators such as rainfall and temperature are high,and the probability of weather risks is high.There is a high demand for weather risk management in China.By drawing on the experience of foreign markets and combining our country's weather and climate characteristics,it is of great practical significance to develop our own weather derivatives market.It can also help fight poverty and build a well-off society.First,this article introduces the PEST macro-environment analysis model to analyze the necessity and feasibility of launching weather futures in China.This article believes that China's current actual situation has been initially feasible to launch weather derivatives.Secondly,by referring to CME's weather derivative products and combining China's weather and meteorological characteristics,this paper constructs a weather impact index that combines the dual effects of temperature and rainfall,and designs weather futures products suitable for China.Then,this paper combines the daily average temperature data of Shenyang City from 2008 to 2018 and the monthly rainfall data from 1978 to 2018,and uses a time series model to simulate the weather index.The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to price weather futures products.Combined with the stable relationship between spring corn production and changes in temperature and precipitation index in the Northeast,the risk hedging effect of weather futures was tested.This article believes that for the simulation of temperature and rainfall index,using ARMA model and AR model respectively,the fitting effect is better,and the weather impact index futures designed in this paper can effectively manage the meteorological risks in agricultural production.Finally,this paper analyzes the potential risks of weather futures in China,and considers the potential risks of weather futures in the application process from the perspective of model risk,basis risk and liquidity risk.