Analysis Of Weather Characteristics Of Lanzhou City Holiday And Its Trend

In this paper, I analyze the tendency of weather features of New Year’s Day,Ching Ming Festival, May Day, National Day in Lanzhou by using the 60-year daily data from 1952 to 2011.Using Markov method,based on the analysis of holiday weather features, I develop one-step and two-step transition probability model to provide a reference for people who decide to travel to Lanzhou in holiday.The results suggest that the average daily temperature has an increasing trend in New Year’s Day, Ching Ming Festival and National Day, the temperature difference of festival mentioned above is decreasing,and there is an increasing trend in precipitation of Ching Ming Festival.In Lanzhou, the average temperature of New Year’s Day is-5.7℃,the temperature has a rising trend with 1.5℃ every 20 years, during New Year’s holiday it rains little without dust, and the temperature difference between day and night is large, so travelers should keep warm at night. In Ching Ming Festival,temperature is around 11℃ and rise with 0.04℃ per year, humidity is rising in last ten years and blowing dust is decreasing,the weather is suitable for climbing and hiking. May Day and National Day is the best choice for people to travel in Lanzhou, in these days the average daily temperature is around 15℃ without exceed to20℃, the probability to rain is less than 15%.The probability of blowing dust is less than 10% and almost never happen in the last 10 years duringNational Day.The transition model shows that if the temperature is higher than-5℃ one or two days before New Year’s day, the temperature is lower than 12℃ the one or two days before Ching Ming Festival,the temperature is higher than 18℃ the day before May Day and the temperature is lower than 14℃ the day before National Day,the temperature of each holiday will stay the same state with the previous two days.While if the temperature is lower than 18℃ the day before May Day,temperature of May Day will be most likely in a higher level i.e.2℃ higher than normal days, and if the temperature is higher than 14℃the day before National Day,temperature of National Day will be most likely in a lower level i.e. 2℃ lower than normal days.