Research On The Expansion Model Of Plateau And Mountain City

In recent years,along with the in-depth implementation of the strategy for the great development of the western region and the accelerated development of the western region of China,the expansion of plateau mountain cities has been advancing by leaps and bounds.If we take into account the benefits of urban expansion while ensuring the full use of land resources in the ecological civilization point of view,to achieve the sustainable development of built-up plateau mountainous cities has become the focus of attention in recent years.Prediction of the speed and progress of urban built-up areas is an important management basis to prevent the spread of cities.At the same time,the quantitative coupling analysis of urban expansion is an important guarantee to prevent inefficient and civilized urban land use.In this paper,Dali City is located in the plateau mountainous region as a typical case,from the perspective of land intensive and ecological civilization,qualitative,quantitative and simulation analysis of urban spatial expansion model is to ensure that the ecological civilization of Dali City under the premise of meeting the city sustainable development.According to the complicated natural geographical features of Dali City,from the perspective of maintaining the ecological civilization of the city,this paper constructs the spatial layout of urban space in Dali City as the main basis for the urban expansion in Dali City.From the perspective of expanding strength,expanding direction and expanding And structure of urban development in Dali City,the expansion of urban spatial evolution and characteristics of the changes;and predict the rationality of urban expansion in Dali City.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)From the analysis of the relationship between the urban expansion of Dali City and the degree of land intensiveness and ecological civilization,the current urban space expansion mode is not entirely conducive to the land intensive and ecological civilization in Dali City and needs to be predicted and planned.With land intensive and ecological civilization as the main basis,the paper proposes the prediction scheme of Dali city space in the future such as the expansion of compactness.(2)The urban built-up area of Dali City was extracted from 2000 to 2015.Using RS data fusion and GIS mining technology,the spatial expansion index model of urban built-up area,convex hull theory,fractal dimension analysis and compactness analysis method were used to analyze the urban area Expanding and changing characteristics of Dali City,revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of urban expansion in Dali City.It shows that the urban expansion trend of Dali City firstly develops at a high speed,and then the speed gradually slows down,and the external expansion of urban expansion is dominated.(3)CA-Markov model,which integrates weighted index assignment method,has become an important method to predict the expansion of urban built-up areas in a variety of urban built-up area simulation and prediction methods.Expansion of the basic characteristics and laws.The model is more sensitive to the method of index weight assignment.The former single index assignment method,such as the subjectivity of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)in expert knowledge decision-making,affects the accuracy and credibility of the extended prediction of urban built-up areas.To this end,this study proposes to improve the CA-Markov model by integrating AHP and Logistics models based on the traditional weighted assignment method.Based on the historical data of four stages of urban expansion in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,the study selected and simulated the expansion of urban built-up areas in 2020 and 2030.Finally,the simulation results were compared with the actual urban Built-up area expansion map for comparison and Kappa verification.The results show that:(1)Kappa index can reach 96.8%,the prediction result is in good agreement with the actual expansion of urban built-up area.(2)The expansion of urban built-up areas in Dali City continued to expand outward,with the southeast and northwest directions as the main expansion directions between the two built-up areas.The study provides a portfolio weight assignment to improve the CA-Markov model,which will provide strong support for planners and decision makers in the future development of sustainable urban planning.(4)Urban sustainable development is an important part of sustainable development.Ecology and rationality are the important preconditions and basic ways to realize the sustainable development of the city.However,it is still only a regional decomposition plan of urban sustainability goal,which lacks universality.This research systematically combs urban expansion and ecological civilization,Based on the concept of "pressure-state-response(PSR)",a concept of regional ecological sustainability and rationality has been constructed from two aspects of ecological civilization and land intensive degree Model and evaluation of the model,the selection of the model indicators and the use of quantitative entropy method and qualitative evaluation of expert knowledge fusion basic evaluation method of ecological civilization and land intensive degree threshold for comprehensive evaluation and in-depth discussion,according to the existing The coupling analyzes the urban expansion in 2020 and 2030.The study shows that: until now,the coupling coordination between urban expansion and ecological civilization and land intensiveness is modest and coordinated development.Under the ideal conditions,urban expansion is more reasonable,but there is still a lot of manageable space.