| Dairy products are very nutritious and very common foods.Due to the frequent occurrence of dairy product quality problems in recent years,it has a serious impact on the health of the general public.Therefore,it is urgent to solve dairy product problems and improve the quality and safety of dairy products in China.Dairy product quality chain refers to the quality system that is based on the flow of quality factors.It is also a complex system with special properties.It is necessary to select appropriate theories and mathematical tools for analysis.Therefore,from the perspective of the dairy product quality chain,this article conducts a comprehensive and systematic analysis of its reliability.Firstly,the theory of dairy product quality chain reliability research based on fault tree and Monte Carlo simulation methods were reviewed by the article,including quality chain and dairy product quality chain theory,fault tree method and Monte Carlo simulation method,etc.,to combine the dairy product quality chain.The characteristics of the “human,machine,material,law,and environment” are summarized in five aspects that affect the reliability of dairy products,collection,processing,and circulation in the dairy product quality chain.Next,the reliability of the dairy product quality chain was diagnosed by this article.Through the FTA method,the dairy product quality chain diagnosis model was established,and the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the model.The failure rate of each bottom event in the FTA diagnosis model was calculated,and the reliability of each bottom event and the reliability of each link of the quality chain were obtained.The overall reliability of the dairy product quality chain lays the foundation for the subsequent optimization of distribution and management strategies for the reliability of the dairy product quality chain.In addition,this article provides two case studies of dairy product quality chain failures with independent failure and common cause failure,demonstrating that this method is feasible and effective.Finally,the reliability of the dairy product quality chain was forecasted and optimized by this article.By comparing several prediction methods,the boundary value method is used to predict the reliability of the dairy product quality chain,and the maximum possible reliability of each link is obtained.Then the cost function is used to establish the dairy product quality chain cost constraint function,and then the dairy product quality is established.Chain reliability distribution model,through the algorithm to achieve optimal distribution of all aspects and overall reliability.Similarly,passing the case verification method after the chapter is feasible and effective.After the diagnosis and optimal distribution of the dairy product quality chain,this article summarized all the research results,pointed out the deficiencies of the article,and also looked forward to the future research content. |