Analysis On Probability Risk Parametric Identification Based On Improved Monte Carlo Simulation And Fault Tree Integration

In this paper,with the purpose of high probability technology risks identification,we firstly calculate the failure probability and system reliability by the Monte Carlo fault tree model in order to identify the key end event,and then find the core influencing factors based on the parameterization identification so as to achieve the qualitative and quantitative identification of the probability of technology and the precise control of influencing factors.Compared with the previous practice of various types of technical risk control,this method avoids the blindness and limitation of the previous product development activities only relying on the experience to do the qualitative analysis,and reduces the time and material cost of doing a large number of experimental verification according to the risk control standard.On the basis of traditional identification of risk items,it is possible to quantify the risk and influence factors,find out the correlation of influencing factors,and provide the conditions for further optimization design and computer programming analysis.Take the main technology risk of tolerance chain failure and components failure as example,we establish the specified Monte Carlo fault tree model.Then we can do the assembly failure risk analysis under the condition of the conflict of the dimension chain.At same time,we can also use the model to find the key event of component failure event and the key influencing factors by parameter modeling for key end event.Based on the method,the product fault tree can be upgraded from the traditional qualitative description record to the Monte Carlo fault tree which uses the Monte Carlo method to solve the high probability risk and parameterize the influencing factors.Subsequent DOE method and experimental data can be used to establish the evaluation system of the model,so that the model to achieve dynamic updates.This method is based on the factor theory to solve the problem of parametric analysis of technical risk identification,which provides the model support for the previous empirical analysis and also provides the ideas and methods for solving the two types of core problems in the actual product development.Based on the previous methods of technical risk control,this method has the characteristics of quick and effective,parametric analysis and so on,and it has some innovation.