| The prices of Wuhan city real estate have been rising for a decade,especially in recent years.This phenomenon was caught attention around the acdemic,although various policies have been presented to aviod high prices,property prices are rising still rapidly.Does housing market bubble exist in Wuhan real estate market?On the basis of review of the definition of asset bubbles,this paper describes the formation mechanism and the measurement and inspection of real estate bubble.First in order to test the bubble of Wuhan city's residential real estate market,this paper gives five indexes such as the ratio of real estate investment and GDP growth rate,the ratio of real estate investment and whole social fixed assets investment,the ratio of housing sales growth rate and growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods,the ratio of house price and income,and the ratio of real estate price growth rate and CPI growth rate to measure the price bubbles.The results show that there were price bubbles during 2006 to 2015 based on those five indexes in Wuhan residential real estate.In order to test these results furthermore,this paper uses the SADF test and GSADF test to measure the price bubbles based on the data of 130 monthly real estate prices in Wuhan which were from January 2006 to October 2016.The result of SADF test shows that there were no bubbles during this period,but GSADF test shows that there were twice price bubbles during this period of time,the first time bubble was occurred in September2014 and ended in October 2014,and the second time bubble was appeared in September2015 and ended in October 2015.Compared to index analysis of the price bubble,this paper argues that GSADF test is more accurate to measure the price bubble than SADF test.At the end of this paper,according to the results of index analysis and GSADF test,it concludes that in the past ten years,especially in recent two years,there were price bubbles in Wuhan city's residential real estate market. |
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