Research On Real Estate Price Bubble Measurement In Nanchang City

The real estate industry is not only an important part of the national economy,but also a livelihood industry that is generally concerned by society.As one of the typical capital cities in the central region,Nanchang City,economic development is lagging behind other provincial capital cities.However,in recent years,the urban construction of Nanchang City has continuously increased.In the first 50 countries in the annual increase in global house prices in 2016,China has There are 19 cities on the list,of which Nanchang is in the 27 th place.The bubble status of its real estate market may affect the development of Jiangxi Province and even the wider regions around it to varying degrees.Therefore,in this context,to determine whether there is a bubble in Nanchang City,to formulate measures to curb the emergence of real estate bubbles,further local conditions,correct guidance,strengthen supervision,the accurate use of macro-control policies,stabilize market expectations,establish a healthy and stable development of the real estate industry The efficiency mechanism has important significance for promoting the proper operation of the real estate market in Nanchang.This article refers to a large number of domestic and foreign literature,analyzes the status quo of domestic and foreign real estate bubble measurement research,and takes the real estate market of Nanchang as a starting point,through a series of indicators to reflect the real estate supply conditions,trading conditions and demand conditions of Nanchang City,real estate in Nanchang City.Analysis of market development and operation conditions.The next is based on the index method to assess the real estate bubble in Nanchang City,according to the principle of indicator method selection criteria,select six indicators to analyze the real estate price bubble in Nanchang,the value of each index and the critical value comparison,the results that Nanchang The city's real estate market experienced more serious bubbles in 2003,2013 and 2016.Finally,we use the entropy weight method and the comprehensive index method to obtain the K value of the foam comprehensive coefficient,so as to obtain the real estate bubble severity in Nanchang over the years.According to the value of K,the degree of foam is divided into three areas: no foam(safe area),foam(slight),and foam(serious).The results of the study show that during the period from 2002 to 2016,the K value of the bubble coefficient of the real estate market in Nanchang was higher than the reasonable non-foam coefficient value in 6 years,especially the real estate bubble in 2003 and 2016 was relatively large.2004-2010 is the real estate security period,real estate prices and values are relatively consistent;in 2015 and 2016 is the expansion of the real estate bubble,the real estate bubble index all the way up,there is a more serious bubble.In recent years,the real estate market in Nanchang has the potential to be abnormal.At this time,measures should be taken to avoid further expansion of the real estate bubble.In the end,this article puts forward suggestions for protecting the health of the real estate market in Nanchang from five aspects including land management,financial supervision and property taxation.The main contributions of this paper are as follows: First,on the research object,the domestic research on real estate bubbles is usually concentrated at the national level or in the first-and second-tier cities that develop dominant positions,and the level of development of the real estate market is rather backward.The Midwest is rarely involved.This article mainly uses the method of quantitative analysis to study Nanchang,as a research object,and carries out detailed analysis and measurement.The measurement methods and results can be used as reference for other cities in the central and western regions.Second,this paper adopts a more scientific objective weighting method of entropy weight to determine the objective weight,which can avoid the subjectivity of the weight given,making the research conclusion more objective.