Research On Residual Risk Of Urban Infrastructure PPP Projects Based On Social Network Analysis

In recent years,the Public-Private Partnership(PPP)has been greatly developed and applied in the field of urban infrastructure in China,which effectively alleviate the pressure on the government's financial budget and improving the quality and efficiency of urban public goods supply.Many urban infrastructure PPP projects need to hand over the entire project to the government at the end of the franchise period.However,during the long PPP franchise period,various risk factors occur randomly and intertwine with each other,which increases the difficulty of achieving the goals of the project,and cause the government and social capital parties to face the problem of hampering the residual value of the project when they were handed over.That is signal of the appearance of the residual value risk.The risk of residual value will have a great impact on the performance,function,refinancing and the sustainability of the project later on.Further it can even make the project unable to provide the public with continuous and stable service.Therefore,the study of the risk of residual value becomes very important.This paper combines the characteristics of residual value risk and the current status of risk management research,based on the theories of public goods theory,principalagent theory and the risk transmission theory,using literature research,case studies,questionnaires,expert interviews,social network analysis and case studies to investigate the residual value risk of urban infrastructure PPP projects.And the countermeasures to prevent the residual value risk of urban infrastructure PPP projects are put forward.The main work and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,through literature research,this paper briefly reviews the research on PPP models and the research status of PPP project risk management and the residual value risk management of PPP project.Then the research on the necessity of studying the risk factors of the residual value of the urban infrastructure PPP project is put forward.Secondly,through the investigation of the status quo of residual value risk management of China's urban infrastructure PPP projects,it is found that both the government and social capital parties lack adequate ability of the management of residual value risk.The analysis of the residual value risk factor is the key for the prevention of residual value risk.Therefore,this paper through the literature research,case study and questionnaire survey method,identifies and summarizes 29 residual value risk factors of urban infrastructure PPP project.Thirdly,from the perspective of risk relationships,this paper studies the residual value risk of urban infrastructure PPP projects.Through the expert interview,108 relations between these 29 risk factors has been determined.Based on the social network analysis method,the visual network of these risk factors has been constructed.Then the density,the accessibility of the risk network,the degree centrality,the brokerage role and other indicators of the risk factors are calculated and analyzed.According to the above research,the location and the role of various risk factors in the network has been obtained.And six important risk factors has been screened including three fundamental risk factors(organization risk,credit risk,regulation risk)and three intermediate transmission risk factors(engineering quality risk,service quality risk,operation income risk).Finally,for the six important risk factors in the urban infrastructure PPP project residual value risk network,the corresponding countermeasures are proposed.This paper studies the residual value risk of urban infrastructure PPP projects from the perspective of risk relationship,which makes up for the deficiencies in traditional PPP research areas.It provides a new perspective for future PPP project risks.The conclusions reached by the investigation will help project managers better control the risk of residual value to guarantee the successful transfer and sustainable operation of PPP projects after their expiration.