Research On Residual Value Risk Of Infrastructure PPP Projects

In recent years,the model of PPP of government and social capital cooperation has been greatly developed in the field of infrastructure construction in China.Because it effectively alleviates the financial pressure of the government,improves the quality of infrastructure construction and operational efficiency,and provides a long-term and stable investment channel for the private sector,it has attracted wide attention from all walks of life.How to ensure the healthy development of PPP project has become a very important issue.At the end of the concession period,most PPP projects need to be transferred to the government completely,including fixed assets,related facilities,personnel organization structure,all kinds of property rights,funds,even reputation,reputation and so on.During the long concession period,all kinds of risks occur,develop and evolve randomly,which makes the project after a series of impacts,may not reach the expected value or even be scrapped in advance when handed over to the government,and then residual value risk occurs.The occurrence of residual value risk will seriously affect the development of infrastructure construction and public interests.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the factors that may cause residual risk in advance,to determine the effect of the factors and to formulate countermeasures in advance for the prevention and smooth transfer of residual risk in PPP projects.This paper makes a comparative analysis of three common modes of PPP project-BOT,TOT and DBTO.According to the characteristics of different modes,it summarizes the influencing factors of residual risk in each mode,establishes the evaluation index system of residual risk in different modes,makes expert questionnaire and compares the relative importance of the two factors.Relative importance is determined by AHP+entropy method,and constructed the fuzzy matter element evaluation model.The results show that in the model of BOT,the importance of residual value risk evaluation index ranks as follows:government level>project level>market level>others.In the mode of TOT,the importance of residual value risk evaluation index is:market level>government level>project level>others.In the mode of DBTO,the importance of residual value risk evaluation index is:government level>project level>others>market level.Finally,the model is applied to the actual case,the residual value risk of the case is analyzed and quantified,the risk is classified.It is concluded that the residual value risk of Ya’an municipal refuse incineration power generation project is of lower risk,and the countermeasures and suggestions for different levels of risk are put forward.And for PPP project,suggestions such as detailed transfer criteria,reasonable selection of partners and reasonable government subsidies are put forward,which provides a theoretical basis for the smooth transfer of the project.