Research On The Effects Of Housing Finance Macroprudential Policies On Housing Price Fluctuation

At present,there are relatively few empirical studies on the effects of housing finance macroprudential policies(HMPP)on housing price in China.If we can accurately judge that,it will help policy authorities improve the HMPP framework and the financial supervision system.On the basis of exploring the toolbox and intermediate targets of domestic HMPP,this paper uses panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2004 to 2016 to construct a dynamic panel data model,adopting system generalized method of moments,and empirically analyzing reserve requirement ratio(RRR),minimum down payment ratio(DP)and the combined effects of them on housing price.By sorting out the literature and summarizing the regular reports of domestic policy authorities and the speeches of the official representatives,we found that the common tools of domestic HMPP are RRR and DP,and the main intermediate targets are suppressing excessive growth of mortgages and housing price.This study finds that: firstly,tightening RRR,DP and the combined effects of them have a significant inhibitory effects on housing price growth.Among them,DP has a relatively stronger intervention effects,RRR and the combined effects of them are relatively weak and similar.Secondly,the effects of DP on housing price may have asymmetry.Namely,the effects of tightening DP on housing price is greater than the effects of relaxing DP on housing price.What's more,RRR and the combined effects of them have no obvious asymmetry.Thirdly,tightening RRR,DP and the combined effects of them can restrain the adaptive expectations of housing price,enhance the effects of monetary policy and intervene housing price countercyclically.Fourthly,DP for first homes is more effective in intervening housing price than DP for second homes.The possible implications of the empirical results are that HMPP is one of the powerful pillar policies on housing price fluctuations.At the same time,we should pay attention to the characteristics of the effects of HMPP tools when use them.