Analysis Of Geoeconomic Risks In ASEAN Area From The Perspective Of Trade Relations

As the world has entered the era of economic globalization,geopolitical thinking has begun to focus on geo economic perspectives.In recent years,China's economic influence on the surrounding areas has been continuously enhanced,and the surrounding areas have also become the key areas of China's geo economic game.Among them,ASEAN is the important strategic support of China.The research on the geoeconomic risk of the ASEAN region is the key direction of the overseas regional research,which is beneficial to the development of China-ASEAN geoeconomic relations.In the study,refer to the index system of geoeconomic risk which presented by Lachininskii.According to the research angle and the characteristics of the research area,this research focused on the two categories of the geo economic risk types which are spatial and economic indicators.Starting from the trade relations,we should select and refine the indicators,and build a mathematical model by using the theories and methods of geoeconomy,interdependence and coopetition relations.Then,we consider the geo economic risks from two aspects: China ASEAN geo economic coopetition and ASEAN foreign trade dependence.in research contents and innovation points are as follows:1.Analysis the background and present situation of the research on China-ASEAN' geoeconomic risk,and point out the shortcomings of previous studies.Based on the shortcomings of previous studies,the scope and basic ideas of this study are clarified.2.Referring to the understanding of predecessors,combined with the actual situation and international demand,we can reasonably define ASEAN's strategic resources and pillar industries.With this definition,the corresponding strategic resources and pillar industries will be summarized.Strategic resources can be classified into three categories: agricultural and forestry crops,metal minerals and energy minerals.The main industry is the mining industry and the manufacturing industry.3.Based on the types of strategic resources,this paper calculates the assurance degree of ASEAN countries to China.It is found that China's demand for strategic resources is concentrated in Indonesia,Thailand,Philippines and Malaysia,which are easily protected by the incapable factors produced by the domestic ministry and cause trade losses.China's demand for strategic resources continues to increase,and the trade competition with other extraterritorial countries will be more significant.ASEAN countries themselves upgrade their industries from resource exporting countries to resource consuming countries.Part of the strategic resource for the future Chinese the gap will find a new way4.Learn from previous research on the calculation of trade dependence,combined with the status quo to make appropriate improvements to build a calculation model.It is found that the degree of interdependence between China and ASEAN is increasing,but the present situation of geopolitical game is also outstanding.At present,the United States occupies a leading position.Although Japan is in recession,it is still in the same position with China.India has definitely gained momentum.In the countries surrounding the South China Sea,China is relatively passive and lacks partners as a fulcrum.The energy and economic and trade routes are being held by the US and Japanese forces,and the geopolitical risks brought by the future big powers will show an increasing trend.5.Based on the development of China and ASEAN,the European Union distance method is used to construct the measurement model of China ASEAN trade relations.The results show that in 2016,China and Vietnam,Thailand,Malaysia and Indonesia were strongly competitive,and were generally competitive with Philippines.Comparing the results with the 2007,2010 and 2013,the competing relations between the ten ASEAN countries and China show a polarization trend,and the competition between the four countries and China is increasing.China may face the risk of foreign capital outflow to ASEAN countries with lower labor costs,and the risk of manufacturing challenges in ASEAN countries.6.On the basis of previous studies,this study found that there are too wide deficiencies in the design of vulnerability.Therefore,the model of vulnerability index is improved,and the pillar industry is used for calculation.The pillar industry is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.The remedial cost of the impact is much higher than that of other industries,which best reflects the connotation of vulnerability.The improved vulnerability model can make the result more precise.7.Based on previous studies,we find that there are limitations in the spatial gravity model.The model can only be used to analyze the degree of interdependence between two countries and can not show the change in the degree of interdependence between the two countries after the influence of a third country.Therefore,the relative relational matrix is constructed to measure the relative trade dependence of ASEAN countries on extraterritorial countries.It effectively answers the changes that have taken place between two countries after being influenced by other factors.It can explain China's main target areas and focal areas in the ASEAN regional geopolitical game.8.In view of previous studies,the Euclidean distance model can not be exhaustive.Based on the characteristics of China's development,this article selects indicators,which can more accurately calculate the competition and complementarity in China ASEAN's geo economic relations.The results of the model calculation show that the main competitive countries in the China ASEAN geo economy are Vietnam,Thailand,Malaysia and Indonesia.In the past ten years,the competition between the four countries and China's geo economic relations has intensified.