The Discrimination And Policy Suggestions Of China Across The "Middle Income Trap"

The concept of "middle income trap" was first proposed by the World Bank in 2006.The gross domestic product per capita of China reached $4,230 in 2010.According to the standards of the World Bank,China officially entered the middle-income level.As the largest developing country in the world,our country once caught in the "middle income trap" may have an "earthquake-level" impact on the world economy.Since then,academic circles have been in constant controversy about whether China will fall into the “middle income trap”.Establishing a scientific evaluation index system to judge whether China has the risk of falling into the "middle income trap" has important theoretical and practical significance.First of all,from the typical characteristics of a country that spans and falls into the “middle income trap”,combined with economic growth theory,income distribution theory,and industrial structure evolution theory,from economic growth and income distribution,industrial structure upgrading,social management,The five indicators of human capital investment and foreign trade constitute the evaluation index system to discriminate “middle income traps”.Using discriminant analysis methods,we will make a scientific judgment on whether China will fall into the “middle income trap” and the results show that our country falls into “moderate.Our country has the risk of falling into the “middle income trap”.Therefore,China should maintain a high degree of vigilance against the "middle income trap" problem and avoid falling into the "middle income trap" causing irreparable losses to China and even the world economy.Secondly,based on the evaluation index system of “middle income trap” problem constructed by discriminant analysis,Logistic regression method is used to deeply discuss the influencing factors of the “middle income trap” problem in China and its impact on the probability that China is trapped in the “middle income trap”.The research results show that the probability of China being caught in the “middle income trap” is 0.657;the main factors affecting China's falling into the “middle income trap” are: difficulty in economic structural adjustment,excessive gap between the rich and the poor,weak independent innovation capability,and irrational process of urbanization process and so on.Finally,based on the analysis of Logistic regression,we give the policy inspiration of China to avoid the "middle income trap".It mainly includes:(1)Transforming economic development concepts and adjusting economic structure;(2)Regulating income distribution and effectively narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor;(3)Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure;(4)Rationalizing the process of urbanization;(5)Solve the problem of unsound social security system and ensure the stable development of society;(6)Pay attention to the input of human capital,vigorously support education,and gradually increase China's ability for independent innovation;(7)Adapt to new market environment and improve traditional foreign trade system.