Analysis On Influencing Factors Of China’s Crossing The "middle Income Trap"

In 2006,the World Bank first put forward the concept of "middle-income trap" when analyzing Latin American economy,which means that the economic growth of developing countries stalls after a period of rapid growth.According to the history and experience of economic development in the world,it is a necessary process to cross the middle-income stage,but the performance of the countries in the world is different in this process.Some countries have quickly crossed this stage and entered the ranks of high-income countries.However,some countries have been unable to overcome this stage,which has resulted in different degrees of polarization between rich and poor,environmental degradation,prominent social contradictions and stagnation of economic growth,as if they were caught in a "trap".In 2009,China’s per capita GDP exceeded 4,000 US dollars,which led to the middle-income stage of economic development.With the rapid development,problems such as the failure of the traditional economic growth mode,the lack of major engine of economic growth and the widening gap between the rich and the poor of the people began to emerge.In order to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap" for a long time like those Latin American countries,our country has to pay attention to this series of problems.Therefore,under the new normal economic situation,it is particularly important to correctly grasp the law of China’s economic development,scientifically and rationally analyze the influencing factors of the "middle-income trap",and then explore an effective way to overcome the "middle-income trap" in China.Based on the data from 2000 to 2017,this paper selects 20 countries that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap" and 13 typical countries that have fallen into the "middle-income trap".Through logistic regression model,fixed-effect model and dynamic panel model,this paper empirically analyses the social and economic development,degree of openness and industrial structure of these countries in the process of crossing the "middle-income trap".The structure and the level of scientific and technological development and other factors have an impact on it.Then,on the basis of summing up the international experience and lessons of crossing the "middle-income trap",combining with the analysis of the current situation of China’s economicdevelopment and the forecast results of China’s per capita GDP,it is concluded that the growth rate of China’s per capita GDP should be maintained at about 5.81% in the future,and China will cross the "middle-income trap" in 2030 and enter the ranks of high-income countries.Therefore,rationalization suggestions are put forward: speeding up industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading;reforming government functions;reasonably promoting urbanization construction;and attaching importance to institutional innovation.