| This research mainly focuses on the analysis of China's long-run economic growth based on the background of the middle income trap.Through organization of the past relevant literature works that can support middle income trap,in order to find out theoretical origin of this theorem.So that we can investigate in deep the existence of middle income trap among regions throughout the world.By adopting empirical econometric approaches,we analyze the relationships of energy,environment and economy.In addition,by using club convergence test,we include education level,income disparity,institutional quality,and technical progress to uncover their effect on economic growth.The find part utilizes ARIMA model to predict China's future economic growth rate,and proposes relevant policy suggestions according to the research findings.Firstly,heated discussion was aroused after the World Bank first proposed "middle income trap",however the investigation about stagnation during economic growth and its cause has long been existing.This paper sorts out the past literature regarding economic slowdown and growth dynamics,and traces to the source of middle income trap.Through collecting and arranging the relevant themed articles from domestic paper database and SCI,SSCI database,we find that the reaction of this topic is "hot inside but cold outside".Mainstream economists also hold controversial opinions towards this theory.Successful countries spend 20 to 30 years on average,while failure countries have spent more than 40 years but still get stuck in it until now.Nevertheless,middle income trap has no significant regional characteristic,and stepping into middle income phase is not a curse to one country.Thus growth trap is not a common economic development pattern.Secondly,this research utilizes international data of per capita GDP to classify different regions of the world depending on whether or not succeed in avoiding the middle income trap,and the results show that middle income trap is merely a relative concept.Nevertheless,middle income trap has no significant regional characteristic,and stepping into middle income phase is not a curse to one country.Thus growth trap is not a common economic development pattern.Next we adopt ARIMA model to statistically predict China's GDP and per capita GDP growth rate of 5 to 10 years later,in order to provide reference for China to see how long it would take to become a high income country.Then,according to whether or not the growth potential/backwardness advantage has been fully released,we make judgment on China's probabilities of falling into the middle income trap.Thirdly,this research integrates environmental regulation into the classic nexus analysis of economic growth-energy use-CO2 emissions and explores the interaction relationships of them by using China's time series data from 1978 to 2014.By establishing a VAR model,this paper examines the multivariate causal relationships direction in short and long term and to what extent they affect each other.A series of econometric tools are employed to build a systematic analytical framework,including cointegration test,vector error correction,impulse response function,and variance decomposition.The empirical test results show the existence of bidirectional impacts among the four variables.The findings indicate that energy use boosts economic growth;meanwhile,CO2 emissions positively relate to economic slowdown in China in recent years.Cointegration test indicates the existence of four long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables.VECM model reveals that energy use has a reverse adjusting power of 11.68%working on shifting short term deviation back to long-term equilibrium.Impulse response function demonstrates that environmental regulation benefits economic growth only in the long run and facilitates improving energy efficiency,and the current implementation of regulation on CO2 emissions is inconsistent.Variance decomposition shows that environmental regulation impacts energy use more greatly than economic growth.The final part concludes the new findings of the paper and proposes suggestions for China's sustainable development.Fourthly,by using provincial panel data,this paper empirically analyzed the relationship between income growth and middle income trap based on the perspective of club convergence.Analysis results show that since the early 1990s when reform and open policy being established in China,provincial economy appeared obvious club convergence phenomenon,of which including eastern region of the rich provinces club,whilst the central and western regions of the relatively backward provinces club.This sort of long-term regional economic development gap hinders the effective implementation of China's income distribution reform.Selecting the conditional variables such as education,scientific research,institution,and income gap,the significance of empirical result indicates they are the main factors influencing the interregional club effect.By comparing with other typical international countries,their success and failure experiences in dealing with the middle income trap are all have interactions with the above four elements.The final part of the article concludes and proposes relevant policy recommendations.Fifthly,by using time series data,the paper builds a VAR model to empirically analyze the dynamic correlations among income disparity,consumption expenditure,and economic growth.It also discovers the significant influence factors and degrees to which they work by utilizing impulse response function and variance decomposition.Empirical results show that income disparity stimulates economic growth rate in short term only,but for the long term,it causes economic stagnation and is the main cause for potential middle income trap.Strong consumption demand steadily brings about middle-to-high level of economic growth rate,and it is mainly decided by economic advancement and reducing of Gini coefficient.China's development condition basically is consistent with the trend of those countries that managed to cross middle income trap,that is,U shaped inflection point of consumption has been occurred between lower-middle and upper-middle income stages.Finally the conclusion has been Imade that policy makers should emphasize on nurturing domestic demand bonus that is led by residents consumption demand,only in this way can prevent excess production capacity as well as make our country avoid poverty trap,and eventually become high level income country.Sixthly,this research aims to study the main influencing factors of China's industrial carbon productivity by incorporating environmental regulation and technical progress into an econometric model.The paper focuses on data from 35 of China's industrial sectors and covers the period from 2006 to 2014,in order to examine the impact of environmental regulation and technical progress on carbon productivity.Methods applied include panel fixed effect model,panel random effect model and two stage least squares with instrumental variables(IV-2SLS).The effect of environmental regulation and technical progress has industrial heterogeneity.The paper subdivides industrial sectors into capital and technology intensive,resource intensive and labor intensive sectors according to factor intensiveness.The estimation results of the subgroups have uncovered that for capital and technology intensive and resource intensive sectors,environmental regulation has a more significant impact than technical progress;while for labor intensive sectors,innovation more significantly influences carbon productivity.In addition,foreign direct investment(FDI)and industrialization level facilitate improving carbon productivity for the full sample.By contrast,industrial structure inhibits the overall industrial carbon productivity.The industry-specific results indicate that for capital and technology intensive sectors,optimizing of the industrial structure can improve carbon productivity;for resource intensive sectors,FDI and energy consumption structure should be emphasized more;for labor intensive sectors,industrialization levels help enhance carbon productivity.Finally the industrial sector-specific policy suggestions are proposed.Seventhly,this paper utilizes transnational panel data of numerous countries,and quantile regression estimation technique to analyze the relationship among urbanization,education quality and middle income trap.The results show that urbanization and education are not closely related to economic growth slowdown for high income countries;while the interaction item of the two impacts upper middle income countries the most,and the impact range shows a increasing trend from low quantile to high quantile;higher education positively influences the sustained economic growth for lower middle income and low income countries,but urbanization impacts the opposite way.For other influencing factors,government intervention,and consumer price index have significant negative impact for all types of countries;openness,and capital formation rate are beneficial for long term economic growth;the disappearance of demographic dividend is not the root cause for middle income trap.After considering endogeneity problem,and also regrouping the samples by OECD countries,non-OECD countries,excluding African countries,the consistent and robust conclusions are also arrived at by using system-GMM two-step estimation method.In conclusion,this research compares other economies that managed to stride across or failed in avoiding the middle income trap,such that to uncover the middle income trap problem for various economies.In the mean time,we observed their similarities and differences of growth condition,as well as their per capita GDP growth rate during the middle income stage,so that we can find enlightenment for China's future economic growth.Finally,the research findings and pertinent policy suggestions are raised. |
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