Risk Assessment Method Of Real Estate Investment Project And Its Application

There are a number of risk factors in Real estate investment projects due to its huge amount of investment,long development' cycle,involving many links characteristics.In addition,as a pillar industry of the national economy,the real estate market supply and demand is directly associated with the people,greatly affected by the national macro-control and economic environment,the risk is inevitable.In order to avoid the risks of real estate investment in the rapidly growth,this paper systematically analyzed the risk factors of various stages in real estate investment project,using mathematical models to evaluate risk factors,from qualitative analysis to quantitative calculation,we establishd decision-making and risk control systems of the whole process of a real estate project,which used to guide real estate investment practices.Firstly,we divided the whole process of real estate investment into four stages:the decision-making stage,pre-construction phase,the construction stage,rental business stage,combined with the real estate industry characteristics,chose the method of risk identification,identificated risk factors of various stages.Then built risk evaluation index system including guidelines and index two levels.Then learning from domestic and foreign investment mature theories and methods in risk research,compared advantages,disadvantages and scope of various risk assessment methods.Then we built a portfolio risk assessment model based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The combined model can be used as the following steps:First,build hierarchical risk assessment system;second,by pairwise comparison structural elements constructed of heavy weights of all indicators judgment matrix;and third,to calculate the weight of judgment matrix,derived characteristic roots and eigenvectors,and verifies the consistency of each matrix.Consistency condition is not satisfied,they have to adjust judgment matrix,until satisfied.Calculate the lowest indicators of combining weights;Fourth,establishing a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to calculate the value of fuzzy synthesis;fifth,the evaluationg object by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Finally,take Shen Chang Metro project for example,evaluated the risks of this project,which carried out the feasibility and accuracy of the model.Finally,we proposd some suggesstion's to control real estate investment risk:the decision-making phase of the market and strengthen the detection of the control,do a feasibility study;use of portfolio strategy to achieve pre-construction risk transfer and risk sharing;strengthen safety management,hiring third party for the construction phase of the supervision and inspection;scientific pricing,hiring sales agents,property services to do the work.