Research On Risk Assessment Of Real Estate Project Investment Based On Linguistic Variables

Since reforming and opening up to the world, China's economy has been developing rapidly, and real estate industries have become the basis, priority and pillar ones of national economic development. Meanwhile, real estate industries have the characteristics of high investment cost, long payback period and high investment risks. Especially in recent years the government has adopted a series of macro control policies which have had a significant impact on the real estate investment. Therefore, it is an important problem for the real estate companies to evaluate real estate investment risks scientifically and reasonably and to take appropriate measures, and the research on theories and methods of risk assessment of real estate investment has important theoretical and practical significance.Through inheriting and developing the related risk assessment theory, evaluation index system and evaluation method of real estate project investment risk at home and abroad, this paper carries out a systemic and in-depth study on the risk theories and methods of real estate project investment. The main contents of this paper are shown as follows:(1) Review related theories of the real estate investment risks, including:the real estate concepts and features, the risk content and features, the characteristics of the real estate investment, the real estate investment risk classification, and risk identification and evaluation methods of the real estate investment.(2) Construct systemic evaluation index system of the real estate project investment risks. According to real estate development process, this paper analyzed the risk factors of real estate project investment in detail, and established a preliminary evaluation index system of the real estate project investment risks, including four one-level indicators and24two-level indicators in all decision-making stage risks, early stage risks, construction phase risks and the rental and sale stage risks. Then through-questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and etc., the data of the degree of these indicators' importance is obtained, and the final evaluation index system of the real estate project investment risk is determined by mathematical analysis, which includes4one-level indicators,19two-level indicators.(3) Study the risk evaluation methods of the real estate project investment. Firstly, the transformation methods of different granularity linguistic variable are studied, and a method based on the normalized ideas is proposed, it is simple and workable. Secondly, evaluation index weights of the real estate project investment risks are studied, the subjective weights based on AHP method of linguistic variables, the objective weights based on entropy theory and the deviation maximizing method, the combined weights and location weights, are determined. Finally, for multi-granularity uncertain linguistic variables which indexes get, the evaluation models based on extended TOPSIS method, extended VIKOR method, grey relation projection method, and generalized hybrid weighted operator method, are proposed separately in two ways which are the direct linguistic variables and the linguistic variables into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and the evaluation principle, expansion ideas and evaluation steps of these evaluation models are introduced.(4) Give a case study of a real estate company's project investment risk. Firstly, the evaluation index weights based on linguistic variables AHP method are determined and amended according to the number imbalance of indicators, and the objective weights are calculated based on deviation maximizing method, then the combined weights which are also the final index weights as this example are build up according to the proportion method. Secondly, the evaluation methods including extended TOPSIS method, extended VIKOR method, gray relation projection method and generalized hybrid weighted operator method, are used to evaluate the case in two ways which are the direct linguistic variables and the linguistic variables into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and all methods reach the same conclusions. Finally, characteristics of the different methods are summarized.(5) Give the corresponding measures for the real estate project investment risk. According to real estate development process, this paper proposed some specific measures to deal with the risks in decision-making stage, early stage, construction stage and the rental and sale stage.