Analysis Of Factors Affecting The Bullwhip Effect Of Supply Chain Based On System Dynamics

With the development of society,enterprises are transformed from single individuals to supply chain members with mutual coordination.However,in the supply chain,the order of the supply chain and the real market demand often do not match because the information transmission is not timely and inaccurate,resulting in the bullwhip effect.The bullwhip effect will affect the stock,cost and profit of the enterprise to a great extent,and find the key factors that affect the bullwhip effect and strictly control it to become the core strategy of the enterprise.This paper takes the study of the supply chain bullwhip effect as the main research object,selects the moving average demand forecasting method and the order arrival point ordering strategy(order-up-to-level)as the research foundation of the article,and uses the theoretical research to determine the influencing factors of the supply chain bullwhip effect and determine the theoretical relationship between the influencing factors and the bullwhip effect.In order to verify the correctness of the theoretical relationship and the specific relationship between the factors and the bullwhip effect,a system dynamics model was established by using VENSIM.The established model is tested in different market environment,and the results show that the model can reproduce the dynamic behavior of the supply chain system,and can be put into the study of the factors affecting the bullwhip effect.The variance method is selected to quantify the size of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain system,to measure the impact of the factors on the bullwhip effect of the supply chain,and to compare the internal factors: the delay variable,the inventory adjustment time,the expected inventory sustainable time and the mobile average cycle number,and have the most influence on the overall bullwhip effect of the supply chain.The influence factors on the supply chain order volatility ratio,and the influence of the external factors: demand and closed loop decision on the bullwhip effect of supply chain,we know that the demand uncertainty will greatly increase the bullwhip effect of the supply chain to a large extent,and the closed loop decision will greatly increase the supply.Chain stability.In this paper,the system dynamics model is used to reproduce the order changes of each member of the supply chain.When the bullwhip effect of the supply chain is calculated,the specific value generated by the model can be directly calculated,and the results are more accurate.The analysis of supply chain link in the face of different internal factors changes in the size of the order fluctuation ratio,convenient to the supply chain members of the management;analysis of the overall supply chain bullwhip effect changes with the internal influence factors,find the key management factors.This is rarely used in previous literatures,and the significance of this study is confirmed.