Research On Risk And Profit Distribution Of PPP Project Based On Game Theory

With the rapid development of China's economy and the increasing level of people's living standards,the public demand for infrastructure and public services is becoming higher and higher.In order to solve the problem of infrastructure construction,alleviate the financial pressure of the government and improve the efficiency of infrastructure construction,the PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)emerge as the times require.However,the current PPP mode in China is in the primary stage,and has not yet formed a mature way of profit distribution;The foreign PPP project's profit distribution way is not suitable for domestic PPP projects because of the difference of social and cultural background.In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the PPP project,reasonable sharing of project risks and the selection of fair and reasonable income distribution schemes are the key issues to be solved urgently..In order to study the risk and profit distribution of PPP project better.,firstly,this paper introduces the theory of cooperative game in the theory of abandoning,and chooses a more scientific and reasonable method called Shapley to study the profit distribution in this paper.The profit distribution model of Shapley is based on the marginal contribution of all participants in the cooperative alliance to distribute profits reasonably,avoiding equalitarianism and other simple profit distribution models,that we can get a more scientific,fair and equitable result of the profit distribution;Secondly,in the research of PPP project risk,this paper puts forward the risk sharing scheme according to the principle of risk sharing.,which makes the risk sharing more reasonable,then we use the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to solve the risk sharing ratio between the public and private parties to quantify the risk;Finally,considering the important influence of risk factors on the distribution of profit,the risks involved by the public and private parties in the PPP project are introduced on the basis of the above model,the model is properly modified according to the size of each risk,and gain profit distribution model of Shapley based on risk factor correction,and through the empirical analysis,it is concluded that the profit distribution scheme modified by the risk factor is more in line with the project reality and more scientific and fair,which is of practical significance to study the PPP project in the future.