An Empirical Research On Structure Imbalance And The Promoting Effects Of Structure Imbalance On PPI

Stabilizing the price level within a certain range is one of the major objectives of macroeconomic regulation.The amounts of measures can be used to control price level depends on the amounts of factors that could influence the dynamic of price.By combing and summarizing the price theory of existing economic theories,I find that the existing theories imply a key assumption that the market is completely efficient and the allocation of resources is completely reasonable when they are discussing price dynamic.That is to say,all of the ‘supply' on the market is ‘effective supply',then when the contradiction between demand and supply causing changes in price levels,theories always focus on the quant level.However,for the real economic world,especially the developing countries with imperfect market system,the market efficiency and the rationality of resource allocation are easy to be questioned.The existence of the ‘invalid supply' makes it very meaningful to analyze the structural contradiction between supply and demand,to supplement the total quantity contradiction analysis.This dissertation first makes a theoretical analysis of how the structural contradiction between supply and demand could affect the price level.Subsequently,by introducing data envelopment analysis(DEA).We used the degree of capacity utilization dispersion to measure the imbalance of supply-demand structure.In order to find a way to alleviate the structural contradiction between supply and demand,this paper empirically finds that the institutional barriers and economic barriers of firms' withdrawing could affect the health of the supply-demand structure.The higher barriers to exit are,the more difficult it is to optimize the supply-demand structure.The existence of an invalid supply caused by zombie companies formed an extrusion on the effective supply,this extrusion would cause the deterioration of the structural contradiction between supply and demand,then the stable of price level.Further,we confirmed the trend of deviation between inflation and supply-demand structure imbalance level through graphical analysis,that is,with the supply-demand structure deteriorating,price level has a rising trend.In addition to the graphical analysis,this dissertation further builds panel data of 28 manufacturing industries,and uses the static and dynamic regression models to conduct empirical analysis.The empirical results are consistent with the results of the graphical analysis.The empirical results show that as the structure imbalance between supply and demand becoming tougher,the level of inflation will be higher,and this correlation is statistically significant.In the end of this dissertation,we put forward several policy suggestions from the "pre" and "post" perspective.First,to build a comprehensive industrial Internet system,let the market could make full use of market information more easily,and promote the efficient allocation of resources.Second,to guide the rational expectations efficiently,overcome the "animal spirits",and improve the effectiveness of market information's utilizing.Third,to exert the appropriate government intervention,shut down the zombie enterprises,and let production resources flow to where they most needed.