An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of China's Commercial Banks' Risk-Taking Behavior On Profitability

Commercial banks have always occupied a high proportion of the financial industry.In 2016,the financial industry GDP accounted for 8.4% of the national's.In 2008,the global financial crisis and the people's Bank of China canceled the interest rate upper limit in 2015,making the banks have more pricing power,but faced many risks.In recent years,China's commercial bank profits continue to grow,but the growth rate is slowing down.For commercial banks,business development is the process of gambling between risk and income.It is the essential of bank management to manage risk,control risk and use risk.The risk bearing of a bank is the uncertainty that a bank may suffer from in the course of its operation.How to ensure profitability,enhance profitability and create profit models under risk taking is worth exploring.First,author analyzes the macro overall situation of the risk and profit of the commercial banks in China.Then use Guo Tai'an database to find the data of 248 commercial banks.After dealing with the four types of commercial banks from year 2009 to 2016,a total of 173 risk bearing and profit indicators have been adopted,and a fixed effect model has been established.The 3 methods to further analyze the results,the first one is to analyze the data samples of the listed commercial banks separately;the second one is to use the difference GMM method to build the dynamic surface model;the third one is to consider the influence of the type of the bank,and add the virtual variable respectively.Finally,a quantile regression model is established,which clearly analyzes the direction and extent of each variable's impact on profitability.The results are as follows:(1)In the short term,risk taking targets have different impacts on profitability and direction and degree.Therefore,a moderate increase in loans,sufficient capital adequacy and provision coverage is the guarantee of profitability.(2)In the long run,liquidity risk index and capital adequacy ratio have greater impact on asset quality,so we must strictly control and adjust them.(3)The types of state-owned commercial banks have no significant impact on profitability,and their established operating patterns and structures are not well changed;while the shareholding system and the Commercial Bank of the city are different,their structure will have an impact on the profitability.(4)The impact of deposit ratio on profitability is greater than that in the high score.The effect of capital adequacy on its profitability is reduced under the quantiles,and the effect on profitability under the 0.9 quantiles is 20 times that of the 0.5's.Therefore,in long-term,we must control asset quality.One of the innovations of this paper is the novelty of the research content,and the risk indicators representing risk-taking behavior as explanatory variables to explore its impact on profitability.Secondly,using the comprehensive panel data of the four commercial banks in China for 8 years.Since the public data are less,the data and the amount of information obtained can be fully utilized.Thirdly,there are abundant research methods,panel models and quantile regression models are established,and the influence degree are effectively analyzed from multiple perspectives.