Evaluation And Short-term Forecast Of Macroeconomic Growth Quality

19th CPC National Congress' s report pointed out that "China's economy has changed from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development" and put forward the requirement that "quality must be first,and efficiency should be given priority." In this context,the quality of economic growth has aroused widespread concern,and improving the quality of economic growth has become the main task in the current economic development of our country.Measuring and forecasting the trend change of economic growth quality can provide reference and basis for government decision-making and is the premise and foundation to ensure the steady improvement of economic growth quality.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the measurement and prediction of economic growth quality at present.This paper uses statistical data and Internet data to measure and forecast the quality of economic growth.In the part of measuring the quality of economic growth,firstly,on the basis of clarifying the connotation of the quality of economic growth,this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the construction of index system and keyword library of quality measurement of economic growth.This paper holds that the quality of economic growth should be measured from five aspects: growth efficiency,economic structure,economic stability,living standard and ecological environment,and the principal component analysis method should be used.The index system is composed of multiple indicators to measure the quality of economic growth from2007 to 2016,and a large number of keywords in the keyword database are combined to measure the quality of economic growth based on Internet data.The quality of economic growth from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of2017 is measured.Finally,the two indexes are combined into composite indexes.In this paper,MIDAS mixed-frequency data sampling model is selected to bring the high-frequency Internet data and low-frequency statistical data directly into the model,which avoids the information loss caused by the same frequency data processing,and forecasts the comprehensive index of economic growth quality in2017 and 2018.The empirical results show that the quality of China's economic growth is steadily improving,the five measure dimensions of the measurement index overall is better,the ecological environment and economic stability index is lower than the total index value.To become a constraint on the quality of economic growth in China.In the future economic development,on the basis of keeping other indicators continuously improving,we should pay more attention to the improvement of economic stability and the protection of the ecological environment and sustainability of economic development,so as to enhance the net income.Thus,the quality and quantity of economic growth can be improved together.