The Real Estate Reaulation And Empirical Study Based On Unbalanced Market

The real estate industry plays a vital role in driving economic growth and improving people's living standard.As a part of the third industry,the real estate industry,which has high relevance and strong guidance function,has become a basic industry of national economy and pillar industry,its proportion of national economy gradually increased.Longyan as the channel west bank economic zone extending wings and the transportation hub of docking two continent,the health of the real estate market operation of Longyan is very important to the development of the economy as a whole.Therefore,as the disequilibrium of Longyan,we should analyze the real estate market operation mechanism and adopt targeted measuresto reduce the degree of disequilibrium market,promoting the healthy and stable development of Longyan real estate market.In this paper,we take the Longyan real estate market as the research object,through the analysis of the real estate market,to conclude that the main factors influencing the market supply and demand.Based on the analysis of three non-equilibrium econometric models,the hyperbolic aggregation model is selected and the non-equilibrium measurement model of Longyan real estate market is constructed by combining the supply and demand factors and the current statistical indexes of Longyan real estate market.This paper uses the Eviews6.0 software to estimate the parameters of the model through the statistical data of Longyan City from 2001 to 2015,through the modified model,to determine the impact of factors on the market supply and demand,calculate the effective demand and effective supply of the market,and introduce the non-equilibrium index and the control warning line to analyze and prove the real estate market's non-equilibrium degree and the real estate market development stage in Longyan.Then,it makes an empirical analysis on non-equilibrium of real estate in Longyan from three aspects:imbalance of supply and demand,non-equilibrium of product structure and non-equilibrium of price.Through empirical analysis,in terms of total supply and demand unbalanced,we analyze the relationship between sales area of commercial housing,GDP,real estate investment,average selling price and population.From the perspective of product structural disequilibrium,we mainly explore the unbalanced supply and demand structure of residential and other commercial buildings.In terms of price imbalances,we analyze the residents'ability to pay for the purchase,and use the ratio of house price to income,monthly repayment and household disposable income to explore the relationship between house price and residents' purchasing power.The results show that the non-equilibrium degree of Longyan real estate market has experienced a change from positive,positive and negative alternately to negative.That is,at present,the effective supply is much greater than the effective demand,indicating that the phenomenon of excess supply and insufficient effective demand in Longyan real estate market is serious.The imbalance of the real estate market product structure is obvious,commercial housing which can make greater profits to the real estate enterprises is oversupplied.Compared with urban residents' purchasing power,the commercial housing price is too high.Based on the above analysis,the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions from the aspects of total market regulation,product structure adjustment and price control,to promote the orderly development of Longyan real estate market in the long-term.