Evaluating Tourism Resilience Based On The Unascertained Measure Method

In the face of crisis and challenge,it has become a problem for our social and economic to deal with all kinds of uncertain events and maintain their vigor for self-development.But the resilience thinking provides us a new way of understanding it.With the deepening of the research on it,resilience thinking gets more attention of scholars,and its application field has also been spread.It can provide necessary basis for the development and daily risk management of the tourism community,that introducing resilience into tourism field and making quantitative evaluation of it.This paper found that at present tourism resilience research belongs to the frontier in the study of tourism in our country,with fewer studies of resilience evaluation.Therefore,it's very urgent to construct the evaluation index system of community resilience and carry on quantitative research.Firstly,this paper expounds the concept,connotation and related research status.Secondly,this paper builds tourism community resilience index evaluation system,introduces the unascertained measure theory and builds unascertained measuring model.Finally,this paper uses unascertained mathematics theory to evaluate the resilience of Zhangjiajie quantitatively.And the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)the tourism resilience of Zhangjiajie is in the development trend from 2006 to 2015,and maintains a fast pace of development between 2011 and 2015;(2)the resilience of ecosystem is higher than the overall resilience,but the resilience of social system is lower than the overall resilience,as lower as the economy system;(3)the resilience scores of Zhangjiajie is low,which is the fifth grade.So In terms of tourist resilience,there still many gaps between Zhangjiajie and other developed tourist cities in our country.